From the article of 'Petrel'
No.574 / March 17, 1996

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The Middle East peace of trial

 The terrorism strategies have no future



On February 25, March 3 and 4, the remainder of 60 persons in total is the death, and 200 tens of person owed a heavy slight injury in Israel. Islam principle organization Hamas put out both crime declarations. The self-destruction terrorism of the indiscrimination is giving of the impact to the Israeli people, and gPeace" with Palestine is facing an important all at once crisis. Let's examine the background of the bomb terrorism at this time and the influence in the future on the Middle East peace.

Background of bomb terrorism

It is said, a direct purpose of the bomb terrorism at this time is gRetaliation" to Israel. Armed section Ezzudiin Kassam of Hamas put out the following declarations immediately after the terrorism on February 25.gThe terrorism at this time is retaliation against the murder of the leader of this section event two years ago from which about 30 Palestine people were slaughtered with occupation ground Heburon by the Jew immigration person and 50-day ago(eAsahi' on February 26) Moreover, one of military commanders of Gaza's armed section described like this, gYahiya Ayashu (he had been said the bomb manufacturing person in charge of Hamas.) was murdered to Israel on January 5. We who had sworn retaliation prepared two some bomb attacks spending the 50th and accomplished the purpose by god's divine protection." (eYomiuri' on March 7)

It is well-known that the peace route which the Arafat PLO chairman advanced won overwhelming support of Palestine people because of the Palestine election executed on January 20 (The vote rate of Arafat elected to 79.7% and the autonomy government chairmen is 87.1% at the vote rate according to the final, final result of the announcement of the election administration committee on February 10). It is said that Hamas also was going to organize the political party of the affiliate immediately before the election and participate indirectly, and, chairperson Arafat is said to the election participation of Hamas and the persuasion of the terrorism abandonment to the last minute that he was all-out. However, the posture of overseas power of this sect which strikes an Israeli strong theory does not change to the last minute in the organization of Hamas and it is said that domestic gReality principle sect" could do nothing but also withdraw the election participation theory into gThe division of the organization is avoided" finally.

However, asking to the boycott of Hamas was completely disregarded because of the Palestine inhabitant as a vote rate 80% near showed. It is said that the political influence power of Hamas dropped rapidly by this boycott. In the questionnaire of the private investigation organization in Jerusalem, the person who thinks the boycott which a peace opposite sect such as Hamas decided to be gFailure" is descending of 62%, and it is said, g30% will drop the support rate to Hamas in the past one year. The influence power will be finally lost now" (eWorld weekly report' on February It will be able to be said that Hamas, which was losing the support of Palestine people, felt impatient in the background of a series of bomb terrorism at this time.

Failure of Peres's speculation

The aim of Hamas must be in either or apart from, the impact which a series of indiscrimination terrorism had given to Israel was extremely big. The young children were also rolling and in the explosion site where pieces of dead body scatter, there is only tragic neither nor a saying way. gArab people can be killed." gIs this peace?" gResign Peres." An antigovernment meeting was held on next morning of the fifth on the self-destruction terrorism site in Tel Aviv the fourth where 15 lives were lost, and it is said that the participant gushed violent angry to the government and Palestine people. The indignation of the Israeli people faced Palestine people who had executed terrorism and Prime Minister Peres Israel who tried to promote peace with Palestine, it was a natural flow in a sense. Peres was faced to a big trial. Uplift of peace support public opinion that has continued after assassinating Rabin former prime minister of November last year, and it blew off completely. The speculations of Peres, the prime minister public election and the total election that had been scheduled in October this year around were advanced on May 29, collapsed at the same time. Because a Rabin former prime minister was assassinated by the Judea extreme right sect student, the criticism to opposition party's right-wing Rikuud that supports the extreme right in feelings and is reciting the same Israeli largely principle, has risen and the support to Peres who had promoted the peace route with the Rabin gathered. The success in the Palestine election after this showed that the peace route was one of the flow in the age when it was not able to return now. Labor Party of the first party is showing of power more than 44 present seats in the Diet (constant 120) according to various public opinion polls and as for the prime minister public election introduced for the first time, the support of Peres stood dominant applying the difference of 15-20 points tots to Netaniyaf who is leader of Rikuud party. Thus, Peres instituted advancing and the execution of the total election of the Diet member who became expiration of the term of office at the end on October this year.

Assassination of Judea extreme right sect student of Rabin former prime minister, and the criticism to opposition party's right-wing Rikuud ithat supports the extreme right in feelings and recites the same Israeli largely principle jis a rise. As a result, support to Peres by which the peace route had been promoted with the Rabin gathered. It was shown that the success in the Palestine election following this was one trend of today when peace route was not able to be stopped now flow. Labor Party of the first party shows power more than 44 present seats by various public opinion polls in the Diet (constant 120), and as for the prime minister public election introduced for the first time, the support of Peres stood dominant applying the difference of 15-20 points to Netaniyaf who is leader of Rikuud party. Thus, Peres came up advancing and the execution of the total election of the Diet member of an assembly who became expiration of the term of office at the end on October this year.

Needless to say, the aim of Peres was in the reinforcement of an own regime base by using gFair wind". Labor Party that made a comeback to the regime for 15 years, is far to the single majority in the total election of 1992 years though became the first comparison party, and at last, Labor Party became total seat 62, it is one seat exceeds from the majority barely, because of three party's coalition of Meretts and Shas of a religious political party.

Subsequent, comparatively steady regime management became possible because the outside the Cabinet cooperation of two Arab political parties (five seats in total) were received, but the instability of the regime base cannot be denied by making it yet. This can be called an extremely big, unstable factor in especially advancing the peace route of the future. The reason for it is that serious unreasonable terms wait for both also in Syria in the Palestine peace done now.

For instance, the restoration of the Goran plateau can do nothing but become a problem naturally in the peace negotiation with Syria. However, it is a strategic point and the withdrawal from important Goran is deep-rooted also in Labor Party a strong, opposite opinion from the point of securing a valuable water resource. It is that the restoration problem of Goran it might become the issue of the election as it is as for the peace negotiation with Syria that has a rough going if the total election at the end of October is faced. Wanting to avoid it was a speculation of Peres.

Another is a negotiation by which a final position of Palestine tentative autonomy to which beginning has been scheduled since May is decided. It is included whether to admit the Palestine nation here and regimes are very insecure depending on the way as for which like the belonging problem of east Jerusalem and the removal problem and the refugee return problem, etc. of the immigration ground. However, it can be said that inevitable and wanting to reinforce the regime base beforehand for that were speculation of Peres in some compromises to promote gPeace".

However, it can be said that the speculation of such Peres will have blown off now completely. Various public opinion polls inform that the opposition party leads even with Rikuud of Labor Party and the opposition party of government party.

For instance, the restoration of the Goran plateau can do nothing but become a problem naturally in the peace negotiation with Syria. However, in the withdrawal from Goran where is a point of strategic importance and is important from the point of securing a valuable water resource, a strong opposite opinion is deep-rooted also in Labor Party. It is that the restoration problem of Goran it might become the issue of the election as it is as for the peace negotiation with Syria that has a rough going if the total election at the end of October is faced. Wanting to avoid it was a speculation of Peres.

Another is a negotiation by which a final position of Palestine tentative autonomy to which beginning has been scheduled since May is decided. Here, only a difficult problem, belonging problem of east Jerusalem, removal problem of immigration ground, refugee return problem, etc. and the problem whether to admit the Palestine nation is included, that the regime might swing very much depending on the way waits for either. However, it can be said that inevitable and wanting to reinforce the regime base beforehand for that were speculation of Peres in some compromises to promote gPeace".

However, it can be said that the speculation of such Peres will have blown off now completely. Various public opinion polls inform that it is even power with Rikuud of Labor Party and the opposition party of government party or the opposition party is leading. For instance, in the public opinion poll by which 1000 Israeli citizens whom the Israel television immediately after the terrorism of the bomb on the 25th last month executed are targeted, the support rate of party leader Netaniyaf advanced rapidly to 51%, was applied the difference of six points every 45the support rate of Prime Minister Peres, and sprung up in the top. Moreover, they are Labor Party 39 seats and Rikuud 40 seats in the Peres 46%, the Netaniyaf 44%, and the total elections according to the Maarib paper during a day in the prime minister public election. For the public opinion poll result of telling of the Israel television on the fifth, in the person who answered that the peace process is supported, it is 45% and the person who answered as no support is 45%, etc.

Now, the peace route is becoming a situation not to necessarily win absolute support.

Peres declared "Overall war to the terrorism organization" such as Hamas and typed out a series of strong measures in rapid succession. However, in a sense it is resulting that the both are sarcastic, "Peace route" which Peres has promoted up to now is self-denied. For instance, he typed out the strategy where Palestine people were enclosed to set up the fence the west shore district and between Israeli mainlands for "Separation policy" of Israeli people and Palestine people by a physical method. However, this is having of no thing other than the one to deny the insistence on Peres which has been insisted, "Uppermost is planned from the separation even to an economical, social uniting both communities the terrorism prevention" voluntarily.

Moreover, after terrorism of self-destruction in Tel Aviv the fourth, a terrorism measures special forces which consisted of secret information organization Shimbet, the army, and the police, etc. were decided to newly establish and the action power in all regions where this force contained the Palestine autonomy district was given. That is, it was suggested that there be able to be a jurisdiction district of the autonomy government and a situation by which the public peace force was introduced, too. However, this is to deny the basis of current "Peace route" that the expansion autonomy was executed and the Palestine election succeeded. Peres exactly denies "Peace route" which has been voluntarily promoted and cornered, however it is necessary to show posture by which the terrorism measures are prioritized politically. Moreover, a series of terrorism at this time is a severe trial for Palestine autonomy government chairperson's Arafat. It is necessary to accomplish the promise by which "Israel erasure" articles of the Palestine charter are deleted within two months of the doing oak though he overwhelms by the Palestine election, had autonomous council started formally on the seventh. However, many representatives of critical Palestine people to the tentative autonomy overseas also participate in Palestine national council (PNC) which decides it. Therefore, Arafat wanted to have installed Hamas, etc. and some mutual agreement by which the election at this time was boycotted. However, a series of bomb terrorism made it impossible.

Arafat was emphasized in the commemoration speech on the seventh, "Do not stop the peace process in violence and terrorism". He showed the posture of "Overall cooperation" in the demand of rapid-fire of Peres, arrest of terrorism organization's making to illegality and disarmament and managing staff, etc. So, it is said that the Palestine police are mobilized total and Hamas of 600 persons or more and the activity persons of an armed section have already been arrested in strong posture that not is before. However, such strong posture intensifies the friction between Palestine people. At the same time, it might invite the result by which the persuasive power is given to the insistence "Arafat is puppet of Israel." on the criticism power.

It is not in religious "Solution" in the future.

As mentioned above, the terrorism attack of the Islam principle ideologist, do not know whether it was their speculations, trapped "Peace of the Middle East" to the predicament at once. It will be able to be said that the weakness in the Middle East peace route that is progressing that much now was revealed.

However, according to the bomb terrorism can not open any view. The indiscrimination terrorism by which the general citizen as this time is targeted only fuels national abhorrence of the Jew and Palestine people. It can do nothing but be the unmeasured previously contention of both nations.

However, be for both of nations' worker classes to stand up to fight with each rule class, to unite mutually by that, it to suitable, and the necessary one to unite. There is a view by which a truly miserable, national duel is overcome even there. So, we think that the self-determination right is first given to Palestine people and it is indispensable to acquire the condition of an independent, economical development for that. Therefore, when the Palestine peace that is progressing now has such possibilities, we support it again.

Of course, even if the example Palestine nation is established, it does not mean liberating of Palestine people. However, to liberate their truth to Palestine people on the other hand, the solution of a national problem has a progressive meaning also in the point of giving the condition to understand the class struggle is necessary further more easily. (Kanji Kamezaki)