From the article of 'Petrel'
No.575 / May 31, 1996
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China aiming at super-large country
With aiming to avert contradiction to the outside
The one behind "Gunboat" diplomacy
When plain "Gunboat" diplomacy to Taiwan surprised attention in the world, the National People's Congress that equivalents to the Diet in Japan was held in China.
How does the bourgeois bureaucrat in China try to provide for the course of China aiming at the following century?
Background of "Gunboat" diplomacy
"Gunboat" diplomacy of China to Taiwan that had made before the day of the vote on the generalissimo election on March 23 was very obstinate.
China played military maneuvers one after another in the scale as large as not before, following the missile launching maneuvers aiming at the Taiwan strait from March 8 (to 15) the sea and air force ball cartridge maneuvers at the Canton province offing from the 12th (to the 20th), the three forces combination maneuvers thought to have assumed "Taiwan landing strategy" at Fukien province offing from the 18th (to the 25th).
Needless to say, it is a military threat action to restrain the independence of Taiwan.
Consequently, the plain military pressure of China came to a contrary effect, and it became a cause by which Lee Teng-hui who had been criticized as "hiding independent sect" and "Division ideologist" by China win an overwhelming victory, and the one being possible to look from such a series of process and results might be a rise of the influence of the military in the Jiang Zemin regimeD
If China would threaten militarily or much more invade to Taiwan, it would be isolated from bourgeois world where it just becomes building up its position, and would sustain great damage by the economic punishment and stopping of inflow of foreign capital, etc.
And, economic confusion will directly synchronize with instability of politics. The military threat strategy at this time not only becomes the result by which the overwhelming victory of Lee Teng-hui representing the standpoint of the bourgeoisie, bureaucrat and army in Taiwan is enabeled, and by which the reinforcement of his influence is helped, it also improves the hard-liners against China in the United States and promotes the caution in Southeast Asian nations.
China dared to force a military maneuvers though such results were forecast naturally, which might be the phenomenon that the guidance division of the party and the nation (Jiang Zemin, etc.) cannot disregard the intention of the military (or, cannot help temporizing to it).
The party and the national head have calmed the dissatisfaction of the army by advancing the modernization of equipment and reinforcing the war potential though the Chinese military had dissatisfaction in the forces' reductions in recent years.
However, the dissatisfaction of the army and consciousness of crisis have risen at a stretch because President Lee Teng-hui visited USA last June and reinforced the activity to obtain international acknowledgment of Taiwan.
"The extreme tone of argument that remind of The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution Era to [defend by blood the national independence and sovereignty acquiring by expiation of blood] revived too, and it was a strange excitement.
The dissatisfaction of the hard-liners in the military and the party presbyter to the Taiwan policy adaptable as Jiang Zemin, etc. spouted out at a stretch, so it was a state to worry as if the military would just project". ("The Japanese Economy" March 19)
On the other hand, the military threatening act of this time is also said as carefully calculated strategy not to exceed a line. (For instance, Chinese army avoid to excite Taiwan army by exceeding the middle line of the Taiwan Strait, etc.)
Therefore, we can easily perceive that the intention of the army work strongly though it cannot be said that it is a result of the army's "Reckless driving".
To succeed powers peacefully, the support of the army is necessary above all for Jiang Zemin to whom it is difficult to say as building up a steady base in the army, the party and the nation after Deng Xiao Ping age, though pushed up to the highest leader by the backup of Deng Xiao Ping.
In the National People's Congress at this time, Jiang Zemin make all-out efforts to take the army in, that is, he attended army section with service uniform and appealed as "China has to construct high quality army to reinforce national defense", on 11th and 12th he came out the hall, inspected the front base of Fukien province and consoled soldiers, etc.
Outlet of accumulating contradiction
However, of course it might be superficial to think that "Gunboat" diplomacy against Taiwan is only the result to have temporized to the army.
It is necessary to know there is more essential aim there to try to avert people's eyes from various contradiction of the country that the progress of the line of reformation and opening brings by the uplift of nationalism as "Unification of Taiwan" and "Territory recovery of the mother country".
A main problem of the National People's Congress at this time was to have decided the ninth five years' plan (1996-2000 years) and the long period targets until 2010.
The National People's Congress approved the government activity report of premier Li Peng that presented "grand" target as to increase the GNP per head by fore times as much as 1980 continuing "stable" growth of 8% a year on average in the following five years, and to increase GNP of 2010 by twice as much as of 2000 besides that.
China aims at the road to "Economic large country" by maintaining "stable" growth though decelerates a little from the high growth of two-digit level in these few years.
However, the future is not easy at all.
First, there is a reformation problem of the government-owned enterprises.
Though the consideration with "The activation of the government-owned enterprises affects the general situation of national economy" (chairman Kyouseki* the managing director who acted of chairman of the National People's Congress) is common to the entire government, it is not clear even now as concerns the actual reformation method. (*Kyouseki is the pronunciation in Japanese.)
The reformation of government-run enterprises was the problem of the most heated discussion in the National People's Congress of this time, and it is said that the representatives of Heilongjiang province, where a lot of government-owned enterprises are falling into serious mangement crisis, hurled violent angry as "Premier Li Pengahas said that government support enterprises financially, when is it executed on the whole"("the Japanese Economy" March 19th). There are about 100,000 government-owned enterprises in the whole country, though they account for 18% of all industry in the number of companies, the amount of industrial production accounts for 43% even though it has decreased every year.
At least the one thirds of them are in the deficit, and last year the deficit total of these enterprises which were not able to adjust to "Market economy" swelled to 40,900 million RMB (1 RMB = about 13 yen) of the ratio 21% increase compared with the previous year. Though the cause of the deficit is variously enumerated, that is the superannuation of equipment, the employing of "superfluous personnel", and that from the incompleteness of the social security the government-owned enterprises may bear the pension and the medical treatment expense and so on, the problem is not to see the symptom of the improvement at all though these points are pointed out for a long time before.
Therefore, especially from the representatives in the inland part, the voice that it is necessary to stop the preferential treatment policy to the specific enterprises such as the foreign capital enterprises becomes strong.
The representative of Jilin province insisted, "The reason for inactive management is that an inside and outside factor of enterprise overlaped each other. The achievement does not improve if an equal competition was not guaranteed in the market", and turned the force of argument to the foreign capital enterprises. The government-owned enterprises should compete with in the country with the foreign capitals received a variety of preferential treatment policy such as on the tax system aspect, so it is to say that the foreign capital preferential treatment should be stopped as to say "Equal competition". Thus, it was described clearly in the plan for 95 years, "make the tax load of the foreign capital to be impartial and produce an equal competing condition" and the Chinese government decided to abolish the import exemption from taxation of capital goods from April which had been being admitted in the foreign capital (Actually some exceptional regulations are being installed).
The managing staff of the taxation business authorities is suggesting of the tax increase in the future to the foreign capital enterprise, such as "The reduction of the enterprise income tax is adjusted".
However, if the foreign capital preferential treatment is abolished, the problem remains whether the active inflow of foreign capital would continue like now.
Especially, because there are a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises in Taiwan and the Hong Kong capital which has the majority of the foreign capital to advance to China, the movement to withdraw the capital from China and to move to Southeast Asian nations begins to appear twining with deterioration of the China-Taiwan relation and the restoration of Hong Kong to China, too.
Such situations will put even "stable" growth in danger, thinking that one of the pulling power of the high growth of current China was the active inflow of the foreign capital.couOf course, it is another if the government-owned enterprises were made active and became to be new pulling power of economic growth, a new dilemma that unemployed people increase rapidly causes if the "rationalization" of the government-owned enterprises was carried out resolutely without the maintaining of social security.tlExactly therefore, the government-run enterprises cannot begin to make a large-scale of men's arrangement until now. Although there is not no method of relieving the deficit of the enterprise by loosenning fiscal and financial policy --- In fact it has been done to a certain extent --- , yet if it would be executed in the large scale the inflation which looks like subsided might rekindle, that isise rate of retail prices decelerates even to 14.8% last year (It is 21.7% the year before last).
There are many other problems that might become the bottleneck of growth. They are the problems of energy shortage, food shortage, and environmental destruction, etc. The energy demand, especially the oil demand of which the fuel for transportation is main accelerates in China in 90's, and concerning oil China has already been changing to the pure import country.
In the estimation of the West side the amount of the oil shortage is expected to swell up to 20 or 50 million tons in 2000 the end of the years of the ninth five years' plan even in the growth rate of 8-9% a year. The cause that China has be seen to be in contact secretly with Iran and Iraq is here, even if the import source can be secured, the price rise will not be avoided.is not possible to take an optimistic view of the foresight of the food demand and supply.
It is famous to have shocked the world because Leicester Brown in the World Watch Laboratory, the think tank in the United States announces in the autumn of the year before last that grain shortage goes up to 378 million tons in the year 2030. The lack in the year 2010 is 136 million tons in the forecast of the Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund in the autumn of last year either, it is not a little amount at all.
We cannot overlook the environmental destruction.
In China which depends on coal for about 75% of the energy source, there are especially a lot of exhausts of two oxidation sulfur, air pollution becomes aggravated, the amount of the two oxidation sulfur exhaust which is 17,950 thousand tons in the year 1993 has the possibility to increase up to 30,000 thousand tons in the year 2000.
These problems will become fetters of economic growth for China not to mention exerting an important influence on the energy-food demand and supply, and the environmental pollution in the world.
However, the correspondence of China of this respect is definitely insufficient.
Spreading corruption
In addition, it is necessary to point out that the indignation of the wide workers and people is pent up for the expansion of the difference of rich and poor, the spread of corruption and graft, and the lenient of the control of authorities, etc. It is the special feature of the National People's Congress in this time that
there are many critical votes against the government report especially relating to the prosecution and administration of justice, this is the reflection of the dissatisfaction of people. The opposite and the abstention became as many as 727 votes compared with the agreement 1,883 votes concerning the activity report of the Supreme People Prosecution Academy that is equivalent to the Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office of last year. In the prosecution report the economic crimes of last year that the prosecution organization in the whole country had prosecuted amounted to about 83,000 the highest past, and it was clarified that 76% of the crimes related to power as the corruption and the public fund embezzlement, etc. In the discussion during the session, the voice to criticize the incompleteness of the exposing system of the prosecution and the indulgence of the management against richness even in a private person.
The critical vote against lenient of the measures of the graft and corruption increasing enormously reached about as many as 27% might show the depth of angry of the people and the rise of local bureaucrat's consciousness of crisis to it. Moreover, the opposite and the abstention became 451 votes compared with the agreement 2,168 votes for the report of the Supreme People Justice Academy that is equivalent to the Supreme Court. It is thought to be the appearance of dissatisfaction to the low degree of the processing performance of the court to handling of the graft case and the economic dispute.
Thus, the deepening of the contradiction because of bourgeois development of economy and the pent up angry of the workers comes to the degree where Jiang Zemin systems might be shaken.
Just therefore, the bourgeois national bureaucrats of China are intent on turning the dissatisfaction of the general public outside by advocating the nationalism and emberking on the military treat against Taiwan. We should perceive the accumulation of the serious social contradictions and the sign in a kaleidoscopic age behind reinforcement of the racism and the hegemonism of China.
(Ken'ichi Suzuki)