From the article of 'Petrel'
No.579 / April 28, 1996

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The bleak prospect of the currency unification

 Be in conflict over the security and the foreign policy
The EU conference on the review
of the Maastricht agreement starts


Just 4 years have been passed from the conclusion of the Maastricht Treaty by which development from EC to EU was decided.

EU began the review conference of the agreement to search for the prospect in the future based on the progress in this period according to the confirmation when it was signed.

The review work is scheduled extending over one year or 1 and a half years.

However, even the currency unification has already realized a great lag from the plan at first and this "Experiment of the Century" is faced various difficulties at present.

Let's see the current state of the EU integration and the focus of the agreement review.



The currency unification-- The new plan of the postponement for two years is also hopeless.

 The big themes on the review conference for the moment are following three points, (1) the currency unification, (2) the common diplomacy-defense policy, (3) the mechanism reformation and the decision-making methods.

In any points, the interests and speculations of the member countries are complicated and conflict with each other, and it is not in the situation of easy advance.

Let's see from the currency unification.

As for the currency unification, in the plan at first, it was scheduled to execute from a part of country where the condition will be in order in 1997, to enter the final step in 98, and to shift to the single currency in 2000, but the head EU conference at the end of last year has already worked out sending this plan to two years ahead because of the impossible of the plan.

According to this new schedule of the currency unification, it is in 98 to decide the participating countries, in 99 to start the unification, and in 2002 to begin the new currency circulation (for some period the each country's currency also circulates side by side).

However, the pessimistic view that this schedule is also hopeless already occupies many people and the voice to urge the re-postponement and to ease the participation standard becomes clamorous.

It is also natural.

In order to participate in the currency unification, each country is obligated to clear a fixed standard about four items, that is,(1) the exchange fluctuation width, (2) the inflation rate, (3) the interest rate level, and (4) the fiscal deficit and the long period debt balance of the government.

However it is in a very sorry plight that filling the standard on the present stage is only one country in Luxembourg, besides there is no certainty foresight by which even the center country named Germany and France can achieve the standard before the participation country decision after 2 and a half years, so these are the reason above. The greatest problem in the four standards at now is the fiscal deficit and the long period debt balance of the government, the former is provided to by 3% or less compared with GDP (Gloss Domestic Product) and the latter similarly by 60% or less. However, even in Germany that is the tractor of the EU economy the GDP ratio of the fiscal deficit is 3.6% and exceeds the standard because of becoming depressed of revenue. Even Germany is this, another country can be judged from this. Moreover, now each country of EU is troubled with business depression and necessary to advance the economic uprise policy by the expansion of the finance expense, so there is no prospect of the reduction of the deficit but just the increase for the present.

The economic growth rate of EU decreased from 2.9% in the year of 94 to 2.6% last year and is expected to retreat further with 2.3% this year. Especially it is in Germany to become depressed remarkably, it retreated from 2.9% in the year of 94 to 1.9% last year and it is forecast 1.7% this year. Therefore, the number of the unemployed exceeded finally 4 million persons in January and the unemployment rate 10%.

It is said that the real number is going up to 6 million persons and that it looks like the situation of the end of the Waimar Republic.

Similarly the business retreat is serious such as in Britain and in France and these countries are also troubled with the high unemployment rate that exceeds 10%.

The bourgeoisie of EU dreamt to promote the integration of economy that exceeded the border in a European scale by the currency unification, to break down the state of chronic economic stagnation and the high unemployment making springboard of it, and to activate the EU capitalism by which it will be able to oppose Japan-US.

However, because the necessity knows no low, they can do nothing but demand the expansion of financial expense for the economic uprise consenting its obstruction to the condition maintenance for the currency unification.

On the other hand, if they give priority to the currency unification and control financial expense, they cannot help determining a further depressing of business.

It is unable to satisfy both sides.

The bourgeoisie of EU is struggling in the dilemma now.



The attack on the workers becoming strong on the pretext of the fiscal deficit reduction

In such situation, the thing that EU bourgeoisie pursues in a body now is the maneuver to achieve the escape from this dilemma by the victim imputation to the worker class.

The attack of the welfare cutting-down and the tax increase are them.

Though the government of Italy made repeatedly the attack of the social security cutting-down in several years on the pretext of the fiscal deficit reduction, the thing that attracts attention recently is in France, it is fresh in our memory that the workers rose up the long period strike extending over a month opposing to "the reformation idea of the social security system" that the government announced last year end.

"The reformation idea" of the French government hoisted the cancellation of the accumulation deficit of the social security system that amounts 250 billion Fr (about 5,000 billion yen), it refered to a variety of fields and the mains are (1) the introduction of the new tax that correspond to 0.5% of all income, (2) the extension of the deposit period of the civil servant pension to 40 years (it is 37.7 years now) and the cut down of its supply level, (3) the putting of the pension and the family allowance into the tax-object, etc.

Though the attack of the French bourgeoisie was forced to retreat by the counteroffensive of the worker class, it goes without saying that they challenge again.Circumstances are the same also in Germany.

The load outside the pay of the enterprise is victimized recently in Germany, and the German manager league shouts the reduction of it to the loud voice as for because of the load outside the pay of the social insurance fee that the enterprise bears and the pay security at the absence of sickness going up near 80 percent of the entire pay.

For instance, they say it is necessary to bear 800 marks additionally further to employ the worker of the pay of 1000 marks in the monthly sum.

On the other hand, the individual capitals start to act irresponsibly, that is, they use the pension system of generating the receipt qualification from 60 years old (It is 65 years old usually) only in the unemployed, and combining this with the unemployment allowance system they force the workers about 58 years old to the retirement fast and put a further spur to the bankruptcy of the pension finance. However, the Kohl regime shut their eyes to such dismissal and "rationalization" by the individual enterprises abusing the social security system, and they are going to use the policy to reduce the load outside the pay of the enterprise under the pretext of the enterprise load reduction being the employment expansion and to pay the necessary funds by improving the value-added tax (15% at present), that is the shameless policy to achieve the enterprise relief and the reduction of the fiscal deficit by the reinforcement of mass taxation.

And though both bourgeoisie of the each country of EU now try to start similar attacks,

such attacks are realistically exposed the bourgeois essence of the EU integration and might not exist of course without waking up a violent counteroffensive of the workers as was seen in France.



Whirling conflicts with "Common foreign and defense policy"

 Well, if it is a strategy target of the EU monopolistic capital for the survival by opposing economically on the US-Japan to promote the integration of economy which exceeds the border by the currency unification, on the other hand, it is justthe "Common foreign and security policy" (CFSP) to try to promote aiming at keeping up to secure politically the position and the influence of Europe in an international stage with such large country as US, Russia, China, etc.

However, EU has not come to obtain any remarkable results in this field either.

The intervention to the Bosnia dispute that happens in the corner of the same Europe is the symbol. Though EU was enthusiastic about "solving the Europe dispute by the Europe power", EU also could not exhibit its hegemony at all on this problem of which they said the first "touchstone" of CFSP and after all the US only made its name. The Western Europe Alliance (composed of 10 countries joining to EU) that is the conference organization of the Europe defense policy threw out their mortification in the rally declaration at the end of February as "it is very regrettable that the [common foreign and security policy] of EU could nott bring peace in old Yugoslavia without the military intervention of US".

The eagerest to CFSP is the French bourgeoisie, who wish for progress in his own hegemony an imperialistic military and foreign policy of the Europe proper to install this Western Europe Alliance in the kernel of CFSP, to integrate in the future as one organization of EU. As well known they traditionally dislike NATO that the United States initiates since De Gaulle and have been pursuing their original military and defense policy.

It is not an accident at all that Chirac attached too much importance to forcing the nuclear test in spite of an international criticism.

It was absolutely indispensable for them to maintain political hegemony in EU, too.

On the other hand, Germany has politically looked up to France though economically boasted of overwhelming power in these days.

With doing so they have formed a German French pivot solving the caution in EU nations that dread Germany's reviving again as a political, military power.

However, Germany also is confirming the political and military insistence of his own recently putting the cooperation with France on the keynote.

That is clear if it is seen, too, to have launched out into dispatching soldiers to the NATO beyond the border in 94 breaking an old frame, and to approach obstinately to add German to the official business word of EU. They will come to be going to request the position and influence as a political large country that is suitable for the economic ability more and more in the future. It is Britain to repulse to this German-French pivot route and to advocate the NATO valuing consistently.

Britain emphasizes that it is necessary to stop the Western Europe Alliance to the utmost in the supplemental organization of NATO opposing the Western Europe Alliance axis theory of German-France, and is also opposing its integration into EU. The British bourgeoisie is desperate to obstruct the expansion of hegemony of German-France in EU by maintaining the frame of NATO that the United States initiates.

On the inside where the confrontation and contention based on the speculations and interests of the imperialist large countries named France, Germany, and Britain whirl thus, the common foreign and security policy should not be so easily settled even if they have the common interests in the one point of the internationalposition rising of Western Europe. Additionally, the neutral countries named Sweden, Finland, and Austria joined EU last year, so the situation becomes more complex. Another focus of the conference between governments with this CFSP is the review of the reformation of the mechanism and the decision making method of EU.

The countries such as France and Germany assume that the reason EU being not able to work out quickly in CFSP is that the decision method of an important matter is the unanimous system of the joining country and are insisting to expand the specific decision by majority system (it is based on the number of votes allocated in each country as 10 votes to the four large countries, France, Germany, Britain, and Italy, and two votes to Luxembourg).

On the other hand, Britain assumes that it is the one reinforcing the leadership of German-France further and is repulsing the decision by majority system strongly.

The small country such as Denmark dislikes the reinforcement of the large country rule and is also opposing to this.

Thus, the forming of the mutual agreement has inevitably rough going also in this problem.



Oppose with the ideal of the world socialist community.

 As for above, we have seen briefly three problems that the agreement review conference faces now and the EU integration are forced the confusion and stagnation with the situation that the interests and the merits and demerits of the each country's bourgeoisie complicatedly intertwine in the economical integration centering on the currency unification and in the political integration centering on the establishment of the common foreign and security policy.

Capitalism is being summarized by the race nation.

--This is the words from Marx, and the current state of EU teaches again how difficult work it is for bourgeoisie to get over the frame of the race nation as his original "base".

The huge power of production that the bourgeoisie had produced exceeded the frame of the race nation and invented the mutual dependence and the connection of economy for the world.

However, they cannot easily part from the frame of the narrow race nation by being bound to the necessity of life or death to maintain the class rule and the capitalist production relation where securing the profit is the only purpose.

It is so even in the limited region named Europe and though sharing the constant interests and the consciousness of crisis, and they can do nothing but always repeat the shake and the friction therefore. To say the currency unification, as already seen even the schedule of two years' postponement has become hopeless, the circumstance is that even the president of the German Federal Bank talks in public "the postponement is more preferable".

However, it is whispered that the currency unification enters the state of stall if becoming a postponement again and is likely to connect with virtual "indefinite postponement".

On the other hand, even if business will recover to some degree in the future and some countries that clear the participation standard will come out, and it will be possible to execute according to the schedule, the two step method being divided to the preceding class centering on Germany and France and the late-started class of Britain and Italy is not avoided, and it will invent the new contradiction and confrontation between the participation countries and the non-participation countries again.

Out of the frying pan into the fire.

It is exactly "the leaps of life risking" for the bourgeoisie to get over the wall of the race nation. In such circumstances, they talk as if something wonderful future would wait for the worker class at daybreak when the currency unification will be achieved and advocate the fiscal deficit reduction for the promotion of the integration in the substitution for this pink dream, and are frantic with shifting the victim on toothe worker public of the welfare cut-down etc. However, the worker public will be not able to be enticed by the currency unification etc.

Their attacks do nothing but break to pieces the fantasy to the welfare nation after the war and the fantasy to the gradual progress improvement of capitalism remaining in the workers public and only become the opportunities when the class confrontation is intensified. It does also nothing but help that the worker public see through the class essence of the EU integration as the integration by the monopolistic capital for the monopolistic capital.

Thus, the movement for the EU integration has the potential for bringing the new uplift of the fight of the worker class in Europe and the development of the class unity in the Europe scale. They must drive back the capitalist attack on the pretext of the EU integration, and advancing further they must set up the slogan to create the socialism community in the scale of all over the world against the attempt of the EU monopoly for the bourgeois Europe integration, and must advance the fightt just for the achievement of this grand ideal of the worker class.

(Masaru Machida)