From the article of 'Petrel'
No.584 / June 9, 1996
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send us your opinion and the impression about this article without reservation.
How does "Middle East peace" become?
The prime minister of a reactionary sect was born in Israel.
The election that the Middle East peace is controlled, ended in a splendid reversal play in Israel. Dark clouds has been shrouded in the Middle East peace. Why were such reversal plays caused? Whether the worker should support any standpoint or not? Let's think about the whereabouts of the Middle East peace in the future.
Party leader Netaniyaf of Rikuud acquires 1,501,023 votes (vote rate 50.4%) to the prime minister election paid attention and he was elected as the difference of about 30,000 votes(0.9 point) every 1,471,566 votes(49.5%) of Prime Minister Peres of Labour Party was applied.
In the result of the total election executed at the same time, Labour Party acquired 34 seats (44 last time) though decreased the seat and maintained the first party. The leftist power added Merets (9 seats), "Democratic front for peace and equality" (5 seats), and Arab Democratic Party (4 seats), etc. acquired 52 seats in total. On the other hand, three right-wing party union which centers on Rikuud has decreased 32 seats (40 last seats). However, a right-wing union is expected to be able almost to secure the seat of the majority jointly with Moredet (2 seats), religious political parties (Shas 10 seats, Judaism union 4 seats, and National religious party 9 seats), Israel Baariya of Russia system emigrant political party of via media (7 seats), and "The third road" (4 seats) which divides from Labour Party. It is said that Netaniyaf starts at once the coalition construction such as a religious political party and the via media political parties and makes new Cabinet started by the 17th.
The election result at this time was a miscalculation of double for Peres. It is one of the reasons that purposely advancing, executing the total election, and having plotted the reinforcement of the regime base ended in the result by which the longevity of an own regime was shortened. Another reason's having plotted the power reinforcement of oneself by newly introducing the prime minister public election system brought the result from which he was rather deprived of the regime.
Various calculations worked so that Peres may advance and execute the election. In above all, he thought the gathering of people' sympathy cores to the peace route by the assassination of a Rabin former prime minister to be the chance of a lifetime.@He wants to reinforce unstable his regime base by electing the Diet member of an assembly at a stretch
and to promote the Middle East peace further more strongly. Such speculations will have existed.
However, the self-destruction terrorism of the Islam principle ideologist who happens from the end of February to March has blown off everything. Afterwards, the bombing to Lebanon was a failure of Peres. The purpose of bombing to Islam Shiite organization Hizubora is to fight the showing election war advantageously, as for a decisive attitude in terrorism. However, it was to have moved the issue of the election to a desirable table for Rikuud and Netaniyaf "Terrorism measures" and "People' securities". The election was fought over by "Peace" or "Safety". After all, the leadership of the election war was taken by the opponent as for Peres. Fear of people' terrorism rose further and the necessity of "Safety" priority was made to be recognized again. In a terrorism measures and strong posture to Hizubora, Rikuud and Netaniyaf won. Additionally, the bombing to Hizubora was connected with the rapid loss of the support of an Arab system Israeli people. Peres was done thus to tear and tore.
The introduction of the prime minister public election system brought the result in which indescribable is sarcastic. The first party was maintained even though Labour Party decreased the seat. However, Labour Party became had contented with the opposition party though it was the first party in defeated of only one point difference because the prime minister public election was introduced. The speculation of Peres backfired completely. Peres says, "It is dangerous for democracy" etc. of the prime minister public election at this time. It is already slowness.
Anyway, the people in Israel showed the intention. It will be able to be said that it will put a constant brake on the peace route which has been advanced up to now under the Labour Party regime by electing passive Netaniyaf to the Middle East peace.
As a rule, workers support the progress of the Middle East peace. Because, it expands the condition of international unity of the worker class in the Middle East nations. Of course the same Middle East peace cannot the same treat the relation for Syria in Israel and the relation to Palestine however. Israel is in the confrontation relation of a bourgeois nation that fights over owning a strategic important place of Goran plateau for Syria. The worker does not support either and maintain neutrality. In the relation to Palestine, Israeli people are the suppression nations and Palestine people are the being suppressed nations. Therefore, the worker cannot approach both similarly, and cannot take a neutral standpoint in this case. Even if the intention of the people in Israel is declared to be "Suppression and rule to Palestine people are continued" by "Democratic election", the worker does not admit it. The worker decisively insists on the validity of Palestine people' national self-determination right and demands the continuance of the peace negotiation with the Palestine autonomy government which leads to the approval.
Then, how does the Middle East peace actually become because of the inauguration of the Netaniyaf regime? In general, "Stall" of peace under a new regime is pointed out. A big difficulty is forecast compared with the case to assume the Peres regime continuance certainly. However, the Middle East peace does not only include peace with Palestine in the negotiation problem only of the person concerned named Israel and Palestine already especially any longer. As original of the mediation of Clinton was signed in Washington while cabinet ministers in advanced each country are attending, and moreover, so that various projects by which the progress of the peace afterwards is supported have been promoted by the propping up and help of advanced each country, the Middle East peace is a problem to which interests in a lot of countries are closely related. In that sense, it will be able already to be said that it is one flow which cannot go back.
Moreover, the progress of peace has brought a big favor to Israeli economy. The relation improvement with Arab nations brought the result of canceling the Arab boycott which had become a big fetter for Israeli economy. It brought the favor which is that dealings with the advanced country in the world became possible for Israel more than the possibility of the trade with Arab resulted only.
Especially, it is said that an inside and a foreign investment continue the expansion balance to come one after another to the US stock market a high-tech enterprise in Israel and to appear between the United States. GDP (gross domestic product) of a Israel person increases by about as many as 15% every three years in the past and is pointed out that the reason why $15,500 of an average advanced country was exceeded is that the investment from the United States and Europe was large in 95. (one of June 'Nikkei') If peace interrupts and an economical political relation to Arab nations deteriorates, all the particular results will be lost. Is there a croton to whom the Israeli capital hopes for it?
In addition, there are circumstances to which the Middle East peace cannot be discouraged for President Clinton in the United States which has always led the Middle East peace. In the president election, the peace of Israel and Syria was achieved and this was a calculation of Clinton to fight the election war advantageously based on the diplomatic result. On the other hand, Israeli government to which even only military field receives help of $3,000,000,000 in year in $1,800,000,000 and total during year from the United States cannot disregarded President United States's intention.
Thus, even if some the tempos are dropped, the Netaniyaf regime cannot help bearing the promotion post of the Middle East peace.
The peace negotiation with Palestine is in the most difficult phase of deciding on a final position of the Palestine autonomy though. Netaniyaf has already asked to the negotiation continuance with the Palestine autonomy government, but it is all things which Netaniyaf has consistently refused in the election commitment, for instance, approval of Palestine independent country person, belonging of east Jerusalem and removal of immigration ground. An easy compromise can do nothing but invite a religious political party which increases a strong sect in Rikuud and the influence power to repulse. Anyway, it is certain only that the Palestine peace held a big further more difficulty.
(Kamezaki)