From the article of 'Petrel'
No.589 / July 14, 1996
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The accumulating contradictions, and a new, kaleidoscopic starting point
Yeltsin regime full of troubles in the future
The result of Russian presidential election and the trend in the future
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Yeltsin barely accomplished the reelection in the final voting on July 3.
However, the future is full of troubles and there waits accumulating contradictions.
We cannot help feeling that this presidential election does not become an opportunity of the political, economical stability in Russia, but a new, kaleidoscopic starting point.
Hereafter, let's search for the trend of Russia in the future easily looking back to the result of the presidential election.
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<> The meaning of the Yeltsin "Victory"
Everyone knows that Yeltsin has progressed the election strategy by fair means or foul aiming at the presidential election.
In the face of the first time vote, Yeltsin issued excessively the commitments to improve the pension and to cancel of the wages unpaid, to expand the subsidy to industry and to execute the financial easing, to abolish the draft system and so on, and monopolized the mass communication in fact to strive for the propaganda, announced "the Performance" dancing with the rock group on the stage, so he has appealed for the support by every mean.
However, he could not obtain more votes than something over 35%, and Zyuganov of the Communist Party closed in even on 3% difference of the Yeltsin in the first time vote.
This is equal to be passed the vote of nonconfidence in fact, because he is the incumbent president using powerful power and working hard at the profit inducement.
Yeltsin who was forced to an awkward position had constructed the personnel affairs as following means.
To take the vote of the Lebed retirement lieutenant general who became in the third place by obtaining the vote of 15% or more in the first time vote, he gave him an important post in charge of the security, and at the same time he cut down the stuff members of the Defense Minister Grachev and the Presidential Security Chief Korzhakov because of the unpopularity to the public.
Yeltsin carried out every trickery such as to take in Yavlinsky of the reformation sect and a part of the managing staffs of the Communist Party, he was desperate in the expansion of support.
It means the taking in construction of such Lebed and Yavlinsky succeeded that Yeltsin obtained the vote of 53% or more adding about 18 points to the first time vote.
The majority of the vote that had supported the two persons was thrown to Yeltsin, and thus Yeltsin somehow attained to the victory.
However, to consider the vote rate of about 67%, Yeltsin won only the support of about 35% of all electors, we can understand his "Victory" is not thorough but extremely instability.
We should say that the national public unavoidably threw the vote at him as "A small badness" compared with Zyuganov or an intention displaying to oppose the Communist Party regime revival rather than aggressively supporting the Yeltsin.
<>The support base of Yeltsin
Within the ranges that can be known by the present stage, let's analyze Yeltsin's support base a little more in detail.
It is needless to say that the part aggressively supported Yeltsin was the class and the hierarchy obtaining the profit by Yeltsin's "Reformation".
First, it might be the one pillar to support the Yeltsin regime, the big enterprise of the government-run old heavy chemistry section and a financial organization etc. (the bureaucratic capitalists' group hanging there) including Gasprom, a huge conglomerate of oil and gas from which the Prime Minister Chernomyrdin came.
The national (party) old bureaucrats slipping sideway to the enterprise manager's position and using the relations with the government they received subsidy, and are provided various conveniences, and obtained the privilege.
There is an enough reason to hope for continuing the Yeltsin regime in this bureaucratic, privileged bourgeoisie adhering to the nation.
In addition, the new rich stratum and "New middle stratum" called "New-rich" that has been formed in the process of the reformation composes Yeltsin's support base, too.
The Nikkei at July 5 spotlights a new, rich stratum and the preliminary army called "Nobeuy Russeky (new Russian)", and it is interesting.
By the paper, they are indifferent to the politics but think "it is absolutely unpleasant to retrogress to the Soviet Union age", they are sensitive to the fashion and are vigorous in the consumption desire, have the carry telephone, the credit card, the foreign car, enjoy a gorgeous foreign travels every year, have a gorgeous cottage spent to take a rest in holiday, which is different from the people's poor villa, Dahcha. (This is rather a coarse hat for the farmwork at the farmland attached in the weekend.
It is well known that the general citizens could manage to be gotten over the life crisis after the reform just by this Dahcha).
Though the average monthly incomes of the general people in April become only about 16 thousands yen, the purchase expense of these cottages is more than 10 millions yen, the owner's annual income exceeds often 100 millions yen.
It is exactly the newly rich world.
The one entering the new-rich is "the people that can be named generally a businessperson in occupation, the bankers and the import traders are the representative example", and these stratums that have fully used the favor of the market economy are presumed to be about 1% of the Russian population. The new middle class who should be said to be the new-rich preliminary army following this is the employee of the financial organizations and the foreign enterprises.
Their monthly incomes are about from 1000 to 5,000 dollars, they have the private car and the AV (sounds and pictures) products made in Japan and can go to travel abroad about once a year.
It is said, "It amount to 15% of the Russian population when this stratum is included".
Leaving aside whether this ratio is accurate, it might be a fact that the new rich class have been formed by the reformation of the Yeltsin and are growing to occupy a considerable part of the population.
The number of the import of the television and the VTR increases rapidly in Russia recently, this fact proves the stratum that can purchase these consumer goods not obtained by the general people actually exists and expands.
On the other hand, the person who is obtaining the profit by the tax evasion and the adhesion with the Mafia is not few in these new-rich. (Or, it might be more appropriate that the Mafia itself occupies a considerable part of the new-rich.)
If Lebed makes efforts to "exterminate the graft and the crime organization" according to the commitment, the possibilities become strong for them to come to put the distance to the regime or to flow out to the foreign country. (The overseas escape of the Russian capitals increases actually every year.)
If these stratums obtaining the enormous profit and the privilege in the reformation of Yeltsin are the main support bases of Yeltsin, it should be said that the workers' public is basically a passive support stratum. They are getting indignant to the state that the difference between the rich and the poor expands, the crime prevails, and the unpaid of wages continues by the reformation of Yeltsin, on the other hand the desire not to permit the revival of the Communist Party regime is either strong.
The reason for it is that they know with their body that Russia (Soviet Union) under the Communist Party regime was a system of severe exploitation and suppression to the workers.
On the other hand, because the most of the region where the Zyuganov support exceeded the Yeltsin support is an agricultural zone and an economical backward zone in the southern part, it is confirmed again that the farmers and the pension life persons left behind the reformation are the support bases of Zyuganov.
He was not able to expand the support besides these stratums after all,
therefore could do nothing but be defeated.
It might not be mysterious even if there were a lot of persons who saw the revenant of the past Communist Party in Zyuganov, who criticized the result of the reformation of Yeltsin but could work out only the reverse policy to be associated the reversions to the old Soviet age such as the reinforcement of national management and the revival of nationalization, advocated the large Russian racialism and the patriotism, and admire for Stalin.
It is certain that he was not representing the future of Russia but the past.
Therefore his fight just stayed in "the Good fight" and could not break Yeltsin.However, it should not be forgotten that neither Yeltsin nor Lebed was greatly different from Zyuganov in the point of advocacy of the large country principle and the racialism.
Especially Lebed who is a genuine (graduated) serviceman advocated the revival of the large country Russia in the election campaign, admired General Pinochet who had knocked down the Adjende regime of Chili by coup d'etat, so he has strong intention of power politics.
In that sense, the presidential election at this time brought into relief that the inclination to the large country principle and the racialism are becoming strong as a whole in Russia where the economical confusion continued.
<> The accumulating contradiction and the intensifying the struggle for power.
Now, Chernomyrdin will maintain the prime minister's seat though to what kind of personnel the new regime becomes has not been made clear yet.
However, Lebed put the work stand as the aide in charge of the security on the Presidential Mansion and the Security Conference and obtained strong influence, so the contention of the policy in the regime and furthermore the struggle for the powers might not be avoided.
Though Yeltsin accomplished the reelection, there is little person who believes that he can complete the term of office of four years. Though Lebed advocated the revival of the vice-president under the assumption of his taking to the position, the reason for this is that he believes that Yeltsin's longevity is not long.
As being understood from this speech either, Lebed has strongly the powers' intention and the state powers' intention as well as Yeltsin and is not inferior to Yeltsin in the point of strength of the ambition.
He will not become Yeltsin's robot.
The meaning that Lebed entered to the center of the Yeltsin regime in the background of the support of 11 millions persons is large.
It will be able to have the meaning as changed in quality the Yeltsin regime.
"The New policy of an economic security" that Lebed announced assumes the economic policy being reviewed from the viewpoint of the national interest and the security, and it asserts that a severe restriction is necessary to prevent the resources, the capitals, and the technologies from flowing out from Russia, to say nothing of the prosecution of the rot and the crime.
They would prohibit the necessary engineer for national economy from leaving the country and would check the going of the foreigner in and out, so the possibility that the open foreign policy would retreat is strong.
They examine the reinforcement of the government management to prevent the inflation etc. and the management and the restriction to economy might become strong as he hardens powers in the Yeltsin regime.
On the diplomatic policy, Lebed repulses to the Western countries that expands NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) east (take in of the old Soviet Union sphere nations of Eastern Europe), and insists to harden the cooperation with China, and to oppose the West side.
Of course, there is his insistence of long years as "the Revival of the large country Russia" behind that.
Chernomyrdin repulses strongly to this Lebed's speech breaking into the economy and the diplomatic level as that the deprivation of the policy power can not be permitted, so the confrontation of both might be deepen.
In addition, if it becomes the Yeltsin succession duel, the Mayor Moscow Kurushikov and the ambitious person and the ghost of powers participate, so the contention of powers in the regime is inevitable.
Rather than that, it should be said to start already.
In addition, we should not forget the bill of the commitment that Yeltsin issued excessively in the election war instantly turning.
The financial expansion is inevitable if Yeltsin executes the commitments such as the pension improving, the cancellation of the wages unpaid, an expansion of the enterprise subsidy, and financial easing as it is, and the expansion of the fiscal deficit and the recurrence of the inflation will not be avoided.
Then, the difference between the rich and the poor will expand further and the struggle of the workers who repulse to the additional exploitation by the inflation will intensify.
Moreover, IMF (the International Monetary Fund) will strengthen the pressure to insist on the stop of financing if becoming the fiscal deficit expansion and the inflation recurrence.
On the other hand, if he disregards the commitment, the dissatisfaction of the public who suffer the deterioration of life without it will rise further, and we cannot deny the possibility that the strike and the riot will break out.
It is exactly "the Tiger at the gate and the Wolf at the post-gate" and Yeltsin might stand on the dilemma of not to be able to go advances or backward.
Anyway, the deterioration of the life of the workers and the intensification of the class contradiction cannot be avoided.
And, if Russia cannot escape from the economical deadlock still, the Russian racialism and large country principle will be advocated by the new regime as the only road where public's dissatisfaction is averted.
It can do nothing but shock largely the international order of bourgeoisie by it also.
Therefore, we insist that the reelection of Yeltsin is not the starting point to stability but to the new violent change.
We should watch the future of this huge nation and the worker's struggle with an important concern in the future and pursue the road of the international and class unity.
(Ken'ichi Suzuki)