From the article of 'Petrel'
No.616 / February 2, 1997

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The rekindling struggle for power

The Russia under the absence of Yeltsin
A search for the background and the character.



The struggle for power rekindles in Russia where the virtual absent of the president continues over more than half a year by the hospitalization due to the heart operation and pneumonia of Yeltsin. Where is Russia bound for, in the continuance of the confusion of economy as ever? Now, the whereabouts will be controlled by the results of this struggle for power. Let's search for the background and the character of the present struggle of Russia for power.



<> Is it the curtain fall of the Yeltsin age?



Though Yeltsin left the hospital at last on January 20 after being hospitalized due to the pneumonia deterioration on January 8, the foresight of the obligation return has not existed yet with the unavoidable recuperation for a while.

Because it was just after the presidential election in June last year the Yeltsin's being not able to accomplish the obligation due to the deprave of the heart disease of his chronic disease, the virtual absent of the president that has already continued more than half a year will follow still for a while.



Yeltsin who drew himself up to his full height on the tank and appealed to crushing the coup d'etat, appointed to the guardian deity in new Russia before, has faded away now completely also. It is doubt whether he can exercise his power as the first term if he will attain the obligation return in the future. The president who might fall in the sickness now has no guarantee to keep steady powers in Russia where the confusion of economy continues, which cannot come out from an unstable social situation.



Thus, we think to see the curtain fall of the Yeltsin age. Of course, though it is premature to declare the end of life of the Yeltsin age, at least it is certain that "the raison d'etre" of Yeltsin decreases more than the first term, because the politics and the economy of Russia are moving in the second term regardless of the long term absence of Yeltsin.



After all, is Yeltsin memorized as a man of power in the transition period when Russia shifted from the centripetal national capital system to "the market economy?"



<> The rekindling struggle for power



The re-hospitalization of Yeltsin due to pneumonia rekindled the struggle for power toward the president post at once. Lebed promptly introduced himself to the president for the next term and the Communist Party Chairman Zyuganov schemed to adopt the president's execution stop resolution in the House of Representatives. The extreme right Jilinovsky also agreed it.

The representative Yavlinsky of the middle sect Yavlok also declared the end of life of his age as "The Yeltsin age has passed away." The discord between the Prime Minister Chernomyrdin and the President Chief Secretary continued and the Mayor Moscow Luzhkov is also highly ambitious in the Yeltsin camp. Thus, the end of life of the Yeltsin age is a beginning of event of the "grand" struggle for power.



The struggle for power is the pounding one in the bourgeois society (or, it should say the class society general?), and needless to say the class struggle of the workers also summarizes to the struggle for power finally. The worker is indifferent with the petty bourgeois intellectuals who give themselves airs and knit their eyebrow when hearing the struggle for power.



However, the problems here are of course that, what kind of character is the present struggle for power coming to light in Russia, what does exist on the background of the intensifying struggle for power. As for Lebed and Chernomyrdin, Chubays, or Zyuganov and Jilinovsky, it might be clear that it is only a part of profit of the bourgeoisie and at most of the petty bourgeoisie that they are representing. Reflecting that the privatization and the introduction of the market economy in Russia are still at a transitional stage, the various powers are being formed inside the bourgeoisie and the power relations of each other do not fix. Such unstable relation and interests' confrontations in the bourgeoisie lead to the incessant struggle for power.



It is well known that Prime Minister Chernomyrdin is coming from of the energy resource industry. If assumes him to be a representative case of the existing heavy industry block deeply adhering with the nation, Potanin, the First Vice Premier under him, who takes charge of the economic policy, will be able to say to be represent a new capitalist and what is more the financial capitalist.



Potanin who is coming from banker and is in middle in his thirties, has the deep connection with the financial industry and is the model of new capitalist and new richness.

The another character who represents the new capitalist in the regime is the Security Conference Sub-clerk Belezovsky. They were promoted by Yeltsin by "distinguished services" of strong backing up of Yeltsin especially on the financing side in the presidential election of last year.



To say oppositely, the new capitalist stratum who has been formed while privatization progresses somehow or other has acquired power to the lever by making inroads into the regime using the strong capital power. These new capitalists' representatives come now to control a basic policy in the center of the second term Yeltsin regime.



The Japan Economic Paper analyzing the gaining power of the "New financier" in Russia writes as follows.



"Their movement in the regime, who come from the economic world, cannot be separated from rights. They gained the communication business of the nation under their wing, gave pressure of restructuring to some enterprises through the collection of taxes and induced them dropping to the hand of the financial capital consequentially. Moreover, the revival funds to Chechen of 1 billion dollar or more, which the Russian government is scheduling the donation in the future, can become the source of big rights, too.



The Yeltsin regime lent the name to this power that was boasting 'to rule the half of Russian economy'(Belezovsky)) now and entered the state to leave them the substantial management." (January 20th)



On the other hand, Chubyse who were the person in charge of privatization is the clerk at the window between the Yeltsin regime and the financial trade, the new capitalist, and is standing on the standpoint inclined to Potanin from the necessity opposing Chernomyrdin.



Thus, to say somehow simplify, the Yeltsin regime at the second term is "the union regime" of the heavy industry block and the new financial capitalist group.



<> The Character of the anti-Yeltsin camp.



The reason that the ambitious person Lebed criticizes as "A handful banker and financial clique rule a half or more of the national economy" is to be conscious of the center part of such Yeltsin regime. However, his standpoint is also bourgeois as understood from the saying of "the Russian National Republican Party" that Lebed launches out in March to concentrate "Small and medium-sized enterprises that compose the majority sects of society" and the via media party and the nationalist, patriot power. He was obtaining the political fund considerably from the financial capitalist group in the presidential election of last year.



However, because Lebed is coming off the main current of the bourgeoisie at least now, he is expanding power by pretending the representative of small and medium-sized capitalist stratum and "Citizens."



Moreover, his characteristic exists to emphasize "Low and Order" and not to conceal the state power standpoint. If the order of Russia falls into disorder, contention in the bourgeoisie intensifies, and gets out of control, Lebed will gain power rapidly. In that case, it is certain that the control of the army becomes strong as understood from that he came from the serviceman and his is trying to depend on the support of the army. We cannot deny the possibility that he becomes a man of power like Bonaparte as a representative of "All Russia."



On the other hand, though Zhuganov of the Communist Party schemes as anti-Yeltsin's forerunner in the assembly, on the contrary, he turns to the support of the policy of the present regime containing the retrenchment budget, the opportunistic correspondence is prominent lately.

Though the Communist Party has the support base on the deserted stratum from a bourgeois reformation such as the pension life persons and housewives, they say to take a realistic policy as "the responsible party" because as long as to stay there the victory in the presidential election is difficult. However, it might be clear that such a noncommittal standpoint is not supported by anyone.

The Communist Party that leaves the vestiges of the Stalinism deeply as well as Japan pursues the road of making to the bourgeois going this way and that, and by doing so, this party just shows itself that it is impossible to win the popular support of the workers.



<> The future of the struggle for power



Thus, the struggle for power of the present Russia is the contention in the bourgeois, petty bourgeois power.



The previous Japan Economic Paper assumes the powers duel of these powers, "The candidate whom the new financial world person might recommend in the following presidential election is perhaps the Mayor Moscow Luzhkov," and writes as follows.



"The popularity of Luzhkov in the capital is full, and he is equal to Lebed in the charismatic character. The achievement to advance the city remodel of Moscow centering on the close relation to the financial world, the financial power, the backup of the media of mass communication, and the like, the strong point is to increase more and more as time passes.



The Prime Minister Chernomyrdin misses to the own appeal as a politician and does not reach Mr. Lebed and Luzhkov far because of popularity. The Communist Party is decline feeling from last year.



The Russian political situation strengthens the aspect of offense and defense between the opposition party power under the leadership Mr. Lebed who wants to bring in to the advancing presidential election during the high popularity and the new, economic capital that substantially moves the home administration by the shadow the regime. No one knows which is the better for the future of Russia and for the world."



However, the workers in Russia will walk on an original road even if which camp stands dominant. And, we must not forget that the fight of the working class is continued as large-scale strike by the coal mine workers and the teachers who protest against pay unpaid in the confused situation being developed shows.

Though only the gay "struggle for power" stands out in Russia, the class struggles of the workers penetrate the Russian society like one red string, this class struggle decides the future of Russia in the meaning of the truth.



(Ken'ichi Suzuki)