From the article of 'Petrel'
No.700 / Novemver 8, 1998
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The Middle East Peace far from "Solution"
Though the Additional Withdrawal became to a Mutual Agreement.
The Tentative Autonomy Invalidity approaching in May next year.
The head conference concerning the Middle East peace held in Washington suburbs reached an mutual agreement on the inclusive subject for discussion centered on an additional withdrawal of the Israeli army as the result of the all-night marathon negotiation for nine days and they signed in White House on October 24. It can be said that the Palestine peace which interrupted taking advantage of Israel's having forced the Jew-settlement construction to the east Jerusalem in March '97 began to move at last after an interval of 19 months. However, it is not possible to take an optimistic foresight that the agreement items are fulfilled just like that and the maximum question like such as the final position negotiation of Palestine still remains being left. Let's examine the background to the mutual agreement at this time and the foresight in the future.
The Content of the new agreement concerning peace
First of all, let's confirm the content of the mutual agreement at this time. Though even if we say it as "the new agreement," it is not the one that there was something new progress but the one only to confirm executing a part of agreement that has been already signed basically. For instance, the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the village part and the non-residence region in the West Bank (= the additional withdrawal), the execution was decided at this time, was oliginally the one that had been promised to start last March and to be completed by August this year with three steps in the Hebron agreement signed last January. However, a variegated, inclusive content is included at this time to compare with the first observation of "Partial Agreement."
(1) It has become the shape that Netanyahu accepted the withdrawal from the 13.1% of the Jordan river West Bank, which the United States has proposed at first, in the additional withdrawal problem of the Israeli army that Netanyahu had resisted to the last minute and is the maximum problem. That is, the 12% of the Israeri army jurisdictional region (the C region) is turned to a joint jurisdictional region (the B region), and the 1.1% is to the Palestine Autonomy Government jurisdictional region (the A region) as the first part and the second part of the additional withdrowal. And it is decided to be executed by dividing to tree steps with verifying the fulfillment of terrorism enclosure plan of the Autonomy Government in 12 weeks. However, it also assumes that the 3% of the 12% is made "the Natural Preserve" and the construction activity is prohibited. It records about the third withdrawal following this only like that they set up the joint committee of Israel and Palestine and it recommends the withdrawal method within four months from the agreement signature. (The Israeli side insists below 1%.) Israel transfers 14.2% of the joint control region (the B region) to Palestine overall (the A region), and the Autonomy Government will rule the 40% of the West Bank, the 60% of the Gaza district in some shape through the process.
(2) Moreover, about the deletion problem of the hostility articles to Israel from the Palestine National Charter of which Israel has insisted as a substitution condition of the additional withdrawal, they say to have agreed the procedure that the Central Committee of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) shall confirm the deletion of the hostility articles on two months later after the Israel withdrawal confirmation and shall hold the conference in which all Palestine organizations confirm this decision on the one month later in Gaza. (It is confirmed that President Clinton also participates this conference.) About the deletion problem of this hostility articles, the Palestine National Council (PNC) had already decided to rewrite the charter in April '96, but Israel has insisted that it was only "to have decided to change as a rule, to have left to the Justice Committee," and the revision has not advanced at all.
(3) Concerning the public peace plan on which Israel has also insisted strongly, it assumes that the Autonomy Government side shall plan the detailed anti-terrorism plan according to the withdrawal of the Israeli army, shall eliminate the base of the armed group, shall arrest and prosecute such as the Hamas activist doing the anti-Israel struggle. It assumes that Israel submits the list of suspect of terrorism, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of US serves as arbitrator to decide whether it is worth arrest, the Palestine Police plays the "Role of Watch." It is confirmed that the Palestine side shall arrest 30 terrorists of 36 whom Israel specified. Besides that, it announces the collection of unlawful arms in the autonomy district, the reduction of about 40 thousand persons' Palestine police at present to 24 thousand persons, the control of the provocative tone of argument in the Palestine educational establishments and mass communications, and the like.
(4) In the problem concerning the economic activity, Israel shall fulfill the agreement of setting up two traffic roads (the safety corridor) connecting Gaza with the West Bank, and where Israel shall not obstruct the traffic of Palestine people and shall not arrest them. Moreover, Israel agrees with opening the Gaza's Palestine airport and undertakes the public peace control excluding the chairman Arafat's personal plane. They construct some industrial complex, and the like.
(5) 750 persons of 3,500 persons who are taken into custody in Israel shall be released in groups of 250 persons, divided into three portions.
(6) Moreover, it also says that President Clinton shall send a letter demanding the self-control of one-sided "single action" which would disturb the peace, for example, such as the settlement construction or the compulsory exploitation of land by Israel side, or "the Independent Declaration" by Palestine side.
(7) Finally, it says that they start the negotiation about so-called "Final Position Negotiation" immediately after signing the mutual agreement document, for example, such as the belonging of the Holy Capital Jerusalem or the approval of the Palestine nation, the border fixation, the treatment of the Jew settlement, and the refugee's homecoming problem.
The background of the mutual agreement
The maximum background urging the mutual agreement at this time might be the hardpressed situation that the time limit of the tentative autonomy end, May 4 in '99, is approaching in half a year after all. Chairman Arafat who became irritated the negotiation on peace that did not progress has been threatening to do "the Palestine State Establishing Declaration" one-sidedly next May if going as it is.
On the other hand, Netanyahu announced a strong attitude that he was prepared even to re-occupy the Palestine autonomy district. The peace process extending over five years will fail and collapse completely if becoming such a situation.
However, even if it did not reach such a worst situation, it was not a good policy for Israel to continue the state of having been failed the negotiation for a long time. The reason for it is that if the chairman Arafat's position will swing by that and the authority of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) will retreat in the autonomy district, it means to bring the gaining power of Islum fundamentalism organization Hamas and Israel will have to deal with the most troublesome power on the other hand. Moreover, if the peace negotiation at this time, in which the United States became the mediator, would become failed, the United Nations would possibly be highlighted as a place for the problem solving in the future. If, for example, such as the Jerusalem problem would be solved in the place of the United Nation, Israel would have to deal with all the Islum nations and it is clear that the demand of Israel would cut down greatly, the possibility that Jerusalem would become under the control of the United Nation could not be denied in case of the worst. Therefore, it is a better policy for Netanyahu to continue the solution method by directly negotiating with Arafat.
It is pointed out that the Arafat system is weakening in fact. Though I guess it is a cause that the inhabitants have been lost the reliance to the autonomy government by the bureaucrat's rot, the main cause is that the "Dividend of Peace" in these times was too few for the Palestine side, or rather the life of Palestine people has been deteriorated. For instance, a report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "The Economy of the West Bank and the Gaza Corridor" has announced the investigation result that "The national income per head decreased 25% after 1993, and the unemployment rate rose from 18% to 30% at the same time. Moreover, the boundary blockage (Israel and the West Bank, Gaza) ruined the reliance of the private section." In fact, because the economy of Palestine such as work away from homes and carrying goods depends on Jerusalem strongly, the loss by the blockage of the city is great. It is said that the blockage of 320-330 days has been done in five years after the agreement in Oslo, the loss for each day reaches 6 million dollars and reaches 1,800 million dollars in total. The guest workers from the West Bank and Gaza to Israel decreased from 83 thousand in '93 to 22 thousand in '96 and it goes about 35 thousand thereafter. The unemployment rate increases according to it and it is said 50% in Gaza for example. Just such a deterioration of the life of Palestine people since the Tentative Autonomy might be the maximum reason to make the trust to the Arafat system lost. Therefore, it was necessary for Arafat to manage to progress the mutual agreement of peace and to promote the rebuilding of the Palestine economy. The opening of the Palestine airport and the construction of industrial complexes are expressed in the mutual agreement at this time, too.
In addition, the role of the Clinton US regime cannot be overlooked as a background of the mutual agreement progress at this time. The eagerness of Clinton put in the head conference at this time was an extraordinary one. For instance, six days among marathon conferences extending over nine days, about 78 hours in total are directly spent in mediation and it is said that the return to White House was 2 or 3 a.m. because of the negotiation on midnight of every day. It was the state undertaking the persuasion with postponing the canvass around California, the important state of the middle election. It is said that there was the crisis feeling that the stagnation of the Middle East peace is throwing the cogwheel of the entire Middle East policy of the United States into disorder as the background of such strong eagerness. The stagnation of the prolonged peace causes the repulse of Arab nations, and the United States cannot get the cooperation of Arab nations also in the Iraqi policy, the Middle East policy does not go as their imagine easily. Moreover, it might be clear that not only the particular diplomatic circumstances but also the speculations managing to regain the lost point facing to the impeachment investigation because of the adultery cover-up doubt by diplomacy with the middle election in November just around the corner. In addition, It was necessary to have agreed before the middle election at any cost because the Jew vote in the United States is a basic vote to the Democratic Party.
The outlook for the future
However, the problemThe more we think about the fulfillment, the more we have the uneasy materials in fact.about the fulfilment, the more we have the uneasy materials in fact.
It was a large chorus of the criticism of the right wing in the The coalition parties led by Netanyahu have 61 seats, a bit of 1 seat over majority in the Diet of 120 quorum.e 61 seats, a bit of 1 seat over majority in the Diet of 120 quarum. Moreover, such coalition partner as the National Religious Party made the settlements a support base and has been threatening from early time to renounce the coalition if the withdrawal exceeds 10%. The Party leader Porath of the National Religious Party declared that they would open the member-of-the-Diet rally and would start the conference to aim at the Diet dissolution on the 26th. Moreover, the extreme right party MoThe Labor Party, the maximum opposition party declared not to agree the nonconfidence with the time limit of 2 weeks, but they also emphasized "to aim at the overthrow of the Cabinet as an opposition party if the mutual agreement of peace will not be defended."sition party if the mutual agreement of peace will not be defended."
Recently, Netanyahu insisted not to have promised the freeze of the expansion of settlement in the peace negotiation at this time and talked to announce the tender concernning the house construction of the Har Homa settlement in the south end ofinterruption of the peace negotiation 1 and a half year ago.of the interruption of the peace negotiation 1 and a half years ago. This is thought to be a conciliation plan to the right-wingHowever, it might be inevitable to bring the repulsion of the Palestine side on the other hand.able to bromg the repulsion of the Palestine side on the other hand.
Moreover, Netanyahu showed the policy to retard the coming into effect of the agreement at this time after the approval of the Cabinet Council and the Diet for about 10 days on the 2nd. The agreement is likely to stumble already from the first step.
On the other hand, the agreement at this time is not welcomed without check in the side of Palestine.
Actually, the voice of big repulsion is being raised by the peace opposite sect such as Hamas to which it is forecast that the suppression by the autonomy government becomes strong from the content of the agreement. Ahmad Yassin, the mental leader of Hamas, presumed aAhmad Yassin, the mental leader of Hamas, presumed and told, "The peace agreement that Israel will still occupy the land in Palestine is meaningless." and emphasized "Hamas will keep fighting. Our activity cannot be repressed." on the 23rd.st organization of both camps obstructing the peace agreement is becoming on the upbeat. A Jew settler was shot dead in Hebron city on the 26th and after a previous notice of retaliation, a Palestinian was killed on the same day. Moreover, A self-destruction terrorism aiming at Jew settler's school bus occured in the Gaza district in Palestine and several Israeli soldiers of generation and guard were killed and injured on the 29th. Arafat confined Yassin of Hamas in his own house and started the restraint of the Hamas activist extending over 120 persons as a counter measure of this self-destruction terrorism. The Kassam corps, the millitary section of Hamas, gaThe Kassam corps, the military section of Hamas, gave warning aginst that as a part of activist possibly "turn the gun" to the autonomy government police if the Palestine autonomy government would keep to suppress the Hamas on the 1st. clamp down the activist of the same Palestine people such as Hamas exactly as "a Dog of Israel" by the mutual agreement at this time, and we can forecast enough that it will weaken the authority of Arafat in Palestine people.
Anyway, the put standpoint is delicate for Arafat and Netanyahu who are the starring persons to fulfill the mutual agreement at this time and they exist in the contradicted situation that the more they try to execute it, the more their political standpoint is weakened. Thus, the Middle East peace still has the danger that might be frustrated at once if step is missed by one step, besides the difficulty of the left "Final Position Negotiation."
Though we admit the meaning of Palestine national establishment and support it, but we emphasize that the important thing for the Palestine worker and people above all is to become independent from the narrow-mindedness racism and religious consideration clearly and to develop the independent fight of the working class.
(Written by Kanji Kamezaki)
(Translated by Yoshi)