From the article of 'Petrel'
No.702 / November 22, 1998

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The Buenos Aires Conference for the Prevention of Global Warming



The fourth conference of the contracting state of the Framework Convention on Climate Change aiming at the reduction of Green House Gases such as carbon dioxide was held in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina on November 12-13. However, the conference finished with not achieving any advancement in the situation gushing the interests confrontation between the advanced countries and the developing countries, and furthermore, in the each group, each country.

They agreed, after much quarreling, to decrease the amount of the average exhaust of Green House Gases of 2008-12 in the entire advanced nations including Russia and Eastern Europe by 5.2% comparing with the level of 1990 and adopted the Kyoto Protocol in the third conference of the contracting state held in Kyoto last December. They hoisted a reduction target, Japan 6%, United State 7%, EU 8% and so on, in the Protocol, and in a swap of this, they include so-called "the Provision for Making Flexibly" in it, that is, (1) "the Dealings of Exhaust Right" being able to buy and sell the amount of exhaust (2) "the Joint Execution" being able to distribute the reduction by the policy executed by joint countries (3) "the Clean Development Mechanism" being able to buy a part of the reduction executed by the developing countries.

At the conference at this time, they brought the next two into focus, (1) making the rule of the operation regulations of this "Provision for Making Flexibly," especially of "the Dealings of Exhaust Right," (2) the participation problems of the developing countries to exhaust restrictions.

First of all, about the participation problem of the developing countries to the frame of the prevention of global warming, the chairman country Argentina proposed to take up as a subject for discussion because the United States was strongly insisting as "The significant participation of the developing countries that are increasing the amount of exhaust rapidly is the absolute condition for the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol." However, they also could not even take it up as a subject for discussion at this time on account of the heavy opposition of the developing countries group including China ("G77 plus China") as "The advanced countries are responsible to the global warming. First of all, the advanced countries have to achieve the reduction target. We refuse the discussion about the reducing work of the developing countries absolutely."

And, the rule-making of the exhaust right dealings was also made to send ahead without stepping into the substantial discussion in the circumstances where the interests and the speculation of each country whirled.

The exhaust right dealings is that a country can allot the exhaust quantity bought from the country which does not come up to the exhaust tolerable quantity provided in the protocol to the reduction of the country, and it is just to solve the achievement of the numeric target by money without seriously working on the reduction of Green House Gases and with keeping a large amount of exhausting. However, this is just a suitable way for bourgeois who resolve all things to the money relation. They do not know any art excluding this essentially.

This dealings is concretely that they provide the reduction rate of Russia and Ukraine where the amount of the exhaust of carbon dioxide has decreased on account of economic stagnation as 0 in the protocol, and each country of the US, Japan, and Europe will buy the decreasing amount. From the joint research team of the National Environment Laboratory and the Kyoto University, the exhaust amount decreased in Russia and Ukraine will become 400 million tons in 2010 and the US, EU, and Japan will buy it 210, 120, 80 tons respectively.

Then, they say the United States comes to only have to decrease it by 180 million tons though the reduction target is 390 million tons, and similarly, EU follows through by decreasing 70 million tons though is 190 million tons, Japan 20 million tons though is 80 million tons.

That is, the exhaust right dealings is nothing other than "the Loophole" to maintain the privileged position of the large bourgeois countries assuming the biggest responsibility to the global warming with leaving everything to money and evading the own reduction obligation. Moreover, as for the buying and selling of the exhaust right, the admission of participation of not only between governments but the private sector and the mediation trader was agreed between the advanced countries, and the wriggling appearance of enterprises in each country looking for this new "Business chance" is told on the backstage of the conference at this time. The market price of 80 dollar or 100 dollar per ton has already been talked, and it is the business of 40 billion (5 trillion yen or less) if it is assumed 100 dollar. Acute is the bourgeoisie of the US, Europe, and Japan who try to make even pollution to an object of dealing and speculation, and Russia is indulging to an unreliable account to handle this money to the economic development in Russia.

However, in the conference about the making of the rule of the exhaust right dealings, EU brought out the setting of upper bound as "It will be bought up by such as the US, the country of economic power if not set the upper bound," on the contrary, the US repulsed as "It will ruin the system efficiency based on the rule of market economy if we will set the upper bound of dealings amount," and such as Australia and Japan followed the US, so the contraposition of interests between the advanced countries came to the surface and the negotiation came to a dead end from the first moment.

And, the voice of the criticism and distrust such as "The exhaust right dealings prompt the money game like speculation and do not lead to an actual exhaust reduction" (Indonesia) came out one after another from the developing countries to the speech and behavior of such an exposed egoism in advanced countries, and making the rule was sent ahead to the one after next after two years without entering into a substantial discussion.

It is natural that the developing countries criticize the advanced country not to try to work on the exhaust reduction seriously at all, and demand the advanced country to reduce at first. Because it is clear that the greater part of the responsibility of prompting the global warming is on the advanced countries who consume as much the tens of fossil fuels as the developing countries per person.

However, by the forecast of the International Energy Agency announced in the middle of the conference at this time, the amount of the exhaust of carbon dioxide in the world was 21.4 billion tons (It is about 5.7 billion tons in the carbon conversion) in 1990 and does not stop the increase tendency afterwards and reach 31.2 billion tons, by about 46% increase in 2010. And, they say that the developing countries including China become two times or more 121% increase while the advanced countries joining in OECD (the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) are about 30% increase if to see the breakdown. It is becoming not the step that the exhaust of the developing countries can be left now.

It is clear that the exhaust right dealings are only pure egoism of the advanced countries' bourgeoisie. However, the criticism of the developing countries to the advanced countries is also base on the interests of the developing countries' bourgeoisie who want to win the economic development of home country with escaping from restriction essentially, and to say such as an international conference on "the prevention of global warming," there carried out nothing but the interests and the egoisms of the capital nations.

Therefore, it is only a fantasy to think that the discussion and agreement of bourgeois nations will make possible to prevent the earth environmental destruction even somewhat, and to expect such things might be exactly equal to "Waiting a river become clear for 100 years."

(Written by Machida)
(Translated by Yoshi)