From the article of 'Petrel'
No.707 / December 27, 1998
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Imperialism is Still in "Good Health."
A Fight Over the Rights Between Large Countries
The Thing Behind the Aerial Bombing to Iraq
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The both armies of England and United States began the military attack because Iraq obstructed the inspection of the U.N. Special Commission of the Abandonment of the Massive Weapons (UNSCOM) on December 17. The bombing such as the cruise missiles continued for four days and reached the scale since the Gulf War of '91. Russia and China strongly opposed and France criticized this sudden use of force. Only Japan declared more decisive support than any other countries. The Iraq bombing at this time cleared the confliction between the imperialist nations over the hegemony of the Middle East.
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The Aim of President Hussein
The direct chance of the military attack at this time was that the UNSCOM tried to execute a surprise inspection which had become full-scale on the 8th to the Baath party headquarters building and was refused. It was not the first time that Iraq refused the inspection. They just went immediately before the military use in November, and it had been forecasted enough if Iraq refused the inspection at this time that the military punishment without warning would be executed. Therefore, Iraq might have done the inspection refusal after calculating the bombing at this time to some degree. Then, where was Hussein's aim?
Needless to say, Hussein's maximum purpose is to make the economic punishment to Iraq stopped. The reason that Hussein has intended to produce the Iraqi crisis by refusing and obstructing the United Nations' activity of such as the inspection group is that he is thinking to make recognized the seriousness of the situation to the international society by doing so, and to draw out a more advantageous condition for Iraq, that is, a concrete measure to release the punishment in the process of the crisis solution. In a sense, it can be said that it is an only effective means given to Iraq now. Hussein thinks that the United States will keep criticizing variously and will oppose the punishment release no matter how Iraq will show a collaborative posture as long as Hussein will be in the seat of powers. Moreover, he reads also that it will not become the definite pressure to lead to the overthrow of the Hussein regime even if a military attack of England and United States would be brought. He rather estimates that an advantageous condition for Iraq can be formed by producing a crisis. And, such speculation by Hussein has been actually achieved to some degree in the process of various "Iraqi crisis" and the "Solution" in these days.
For instance, the use of force was evaded by the mediation of secretary-general Annan of the United Nations at the crisis in February this year and Hussein accepted an unconditional inspection. However, they evaluated entirely that "victory" was on Hussein at that time also. First, he succeeded in the switch of the solution of the Iraqi problem from the initiation of current England and United States to the initiation of the United Nations by pulling out Annan. Moreover, Yeltsin strongly opposed the military attack of England and United States and warned that "World war" would occur if they would attack with military power, it was different from the time of the Gulf War and was similar as this time at that time. France and China still criticized the military attack though a little weaker than that. Hussein succeeded in dividing the five regular director countries into parts of England anIt was an advantageous condition for Iraq that the leadership in the United Nations transferred from England and United States to the country that related to Iraq by the oil rights, Russia, France, China.h relHussein is beginning to have the similar situation at this time.
First of all, the military attack at this time itself did not only lead to the overthrow of the Hussein regime in any way but also was only in the degree at most that "The missile development of Iraq is retarded by one year" (Cohen, the Secretary of Defence) also in the point of shock to the manufacturing ability of massive weapon which England and United States assumed to be an original purpose of military attack. Also England and United States cannot help admitting that the military power exercise at this time made the inspection to Iraq as was before difficult. Moreover, England and United States do not have any effective way to replace it. They are in the condition that they cannot help threatening, "If do not admit the inspection, we will repeat the military attack." On the other hand, the ditch between Russia, China, which strongly opposed the military power exercise at this time, or critical France and England, United States did not only deepen further but also a new making of the inspection scheme are already going to be talked in in the United Nations, furthermore in the initiation of France and Russia after all at this time. The solution plan of the United Nations initiation is being exactly adopted. And, even England and United States can do nothing but entrust to it. This is exactly the speculation of Hussein, is not it?
Moreover, Hussein did not succeed in setting the time schedule for the release of the economic punishment of his first aim on the process of the crisis solution in February after all. However, in 6 months till then, he succeeded in expanding the partial release of oil export from 20 billion dollars to 53 billion dollars, which exceeds 2.6 time. They say that the oil export ability of Iraq was not as many as 40 billion dollars now and it can be said that the same situation as overall release resulted in fact as for the oil export. And, Aziz vice premier of Iraq declared arrogantly not to respond to even any conversation and conference as long as the United Nations punishment against Iraq would not be released at this time, too.
I guess that Iraq have a determine not to give way until winning some concrete foresight to overall release of the punishment at this time, too.
Clinton twists the Middle East policy around his finger for the keeping of his regime.
The aerial bombing to Iraq at this time was executed at the last moment of the president impeachment resolution of Clinton in the House of Representatives, so every one concluded that it was an act born from the speculation to try to avert this impeachment resolution. However, such a criticism is not groundless at all if looking back to the Middle East policy of Clinton in these days. That is, the Middle East policy of the United States has been moved and abused synchronizing with the regime keeping policy of the leader of this imperialist named Clinton too much.
For instance, it will be new in the memory that the Wai River Agreement (the additional withdrawal agreement of the Israeli army) which became the chance of the Middle East visit of Clinton at this time was performed immediately before the middle election of the US and it led to the substantial sweeping victory of the Democratic Party. Clinton was absorbed in the mediation of the peace negotiation with paying no attention to the electioneering though it was the important time in the middle election. And in the result of the vote done after the negotiating approving, the Democratic Party added by four seats in the House of Representatives and kept current situation in the Senate, the Republican Party decreased the seat though it was the election in the contrary wind, just before the beginning of the impeachment investigation around the president doubt. It was indeed after an interval of 64 years that the regime party achieved the seat increase in the House of Representatives in the middle election, so the Democratic Party gets the result which can be called the substantial sweeping victory.
Moreover, it is not only that. For instance, in the case of the aerial bombing to Iraq in September '96, Clinton who was seeking the reelection was made the Whitewater doubt and the ethical sense about the perjury to the point of issue, and his diplomacy to Iraq was also being criticized as week-kneed diplomacy with overlapping his draft evasion. Clinton counterattacked it and launched some cruise missile to Iraq by reason of the attack to Kurd. This sudden attack surprised all over the world and caused a large-scale criticism at the same time. However, the support rate of Clinton in the United States was risen by this attack, Dole also could do nothing but declare approval to the attack, and Clinton accomplishes the reelection.
And, the crisis in February of this year that has already been introduced was corresponsive when the Clinton resignation is strongly talked by a series of doubt exposure. Or, the assembly testimony from which it was confirmed that Clinton had been telling a lie to the people about the adulterous affair was done in August and the resignation had begun to be talked again, when the bomb terrorism occurred at the United States embassy in Sudan and Ethiopia, Clinton concluded instantly that Laden was a participant of terrorism and shot the cruise missile into Afghanistan because of giving shelter to him. We can point out in both case the similar point as the situation at this time. And, it is the condition that the support rate of Clinton rises though the impeachment resolution has been done in the House of Representatives at this time, too.
We can exactly say that Clinton has used the Middle East policy and twisted it around his finger to keep his regime. We see a rotting appearance of the imperialist who does everything for the keeping of his regime.
It might be clear that Clinton is not eligible to criticize Hussein in Iraq at all at the sight of this, too.
The Aim of Russia, France, and China
Of course, it might be one-sided and be a mistake if it one would think that the Middle East policy of the United States is done only because of the regime keeping of Clinton. The Middle East policy of the United States is done, as you see, for the keeping of the hegemony to this region and the imperialistic interests of the American monopolistic capital around the oil of the Middle East, and the action at this time on Iraq is also the same.
Clinton emphasized at this time that there would be no solution of the Iraqi problem without overthrowing of the Hussein regime. However, the collapse of the Hussein regime is not preferable at all for Russia, France, and China. Moreover, the Hussein regime's disappearing causes a big loss for Russia and France. Russia has granted a large amount of arms to Arab nations in the old Soviet age to oppose the United States that plots the Middle East rule based on Israel. The claim remains still now. For instance, they say that it is 10 billion dollars to Syria and 7 billion dollars or 8 billion dollars to Iraq. France also has granted Iraq the most new and powerful fighter bomber such as Shuberetandare plane, has done various supports at the Iran-Iraq War before, and they say that the claim of 4 billion dollars will be still left. And, France was in the the nearest relation to Iraq in the West because of that before, too. Therefore, if the Hussein regime would collapse and the fundamentalist regime like Iran, for instance, would be realized, it would become impossible for both nations to collect such claims. Both nations have interests in that Iraq becomes to being able to export oil unrestrictedly by the release of the economic punishment and repays the debt.
Moreover, Russia, France, and China have directly big rights to the oil of Iraq. For instance, the enterprise group such as Lukoil of Russia is making a development contract of both oilfield such as West Qurana and Al Ahdab, Total and ELF of France, Majnoon and Nahr Umar oilfield. The Chinese Oil Public Corporation has made an agreement of rights to develop the Ahutab oilfield that is expected 20 thousand barrels a day. Hussein had converted the oil nationalization policy till then and spattered "bait" of developing these oilfields jointly with three countries after the release of punishment. Therefore, theRussia, France, China hope for the early achievement of that all day long.t. RuHowever, the United States won't left this with the finger in his mouth.
However, the United States won't left this with the finger in his's mouthThe estimated amount of oil deposits of Iraq is 100 billion barrels and is the second place in the world, the next to Saudi Arabia.verthrow the Hussein regime if things go well. The estimated amount of oil deposits of Iraq is100 billion barrels and is the second place in the world, the next to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Iraq is the latest country in the prospecting and the development in the Middle East oil-producing countries, and the potential amount of the estimated deposits is forecasted to be far more than it. US cannot be deprived the rights by Russia, France, and China easily. It can be said that the Iraq bombing projected the collision of the interests between such large imperialist countries more clearly.
At last, let's think about the aim of the monopolistic capital of Japan that supported the Iraq bombing by England and United States at this time more decisively than any country. The reason that the monopolistic capital of Japan supported decisively the Iraq punishment at this time is not from the "Subordination toward America," but it might be from they thought it to become a restraint to North Korea at the same time. The missile launching of North Korea was a familiar threat for the monopolistic capital of Japan, so they thought that the Iraq punishment at this time became a good warning to North Korea. It is from the similar speculation that the Obuchi regime started the Japan-U.S.-Korea joint research and development of TMD (Theater Missile Defense) at the same time of the aerial bombing to Iraq, and it can be said that it exposed the imperialistic nature of the Japan monopoly.
(Written by Kanji Kamezaki)
(Translated by Yoshi)