No. 836   /  Sep. 9, 2001
(Uploaded Sep. 23)


�ž�@The First "Pledge Violation" of Koizumi
       Abandoning the Early Disposal of Bad Credit
          Koizumi's �gStructural Reform�h is Already Breaking Down

�ž�@Editorial: The "First" New State of the 21th Century
        Thoughts on the Independence of East Timor

�ž�@Series: The Wavering �gZokugiin�h Diet Members
        Exposing the So-Called �gForces of Resistance�h [within the LDP] (#3)

�ž�@Series: Lies and Distortions
        Critisism of the New Junior High School History Textbook (#10)

�ž�@The�gSuggestion�h of an Irresponsible Man
          Kamei�fs �gTete-a-tete�h With Koizumi�h
        The Call for Infusing 3 Trillion Yen in the Economy

�ž�@Regional Reports: The Never-ending Police Scandals
                                                                             (Kanagawa)

�ž�@The Deceit of the Privatization of the Post Office
          Spreading the Fantasy of Economic Development

�ž�@"Restore" The Asian Mode of Production Theory on Ancient History
           Throw Out The Slavery Theory of Japan

�ž�@Security Drills in the Name of Disaster Drills
�@�@�@A Report on the September 1 Tokyo Disaster Drill 

�ž�@Did you Say that Should Have a System Based on Performance?
          The Completely Irresponsible Ministry of Education and Sience

�ž�@The Decrease of Productive Workers
          Where is Japanese Capitalism Headed?

�ž�@The Scheme to Ensure Naval Superiority in the Southwestern Islands  
          The Revision in the �gOutline of the Defense Plan�h


From the article of 'Petrel'
No.837 / Sep. 9, 2001


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The First "Pledge Violation" of Koizumi
Abandoning the Early Disposal of Bad Credit 
Koizumi's "Structural Reform" Is Already Breaking Down

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The pledge of "structural reformation" of Koizumi cabinet is already fading.
The first of pledge violation is the "processing" problem of nonperforming loan.
Koizumi has emphasized till now to settle the nonperforming loan during "two or three years", and he has made it  as a pillar of his "structural reformation" line.
However, the Koizumi cabinet made clear recently the prospects that the scale of the nonperforming loan would hardly change at all even after three years later, and would barely be reduced to half after seven years later.
Many "pledge violation" of the Koizumi cabinet will come out in future, -- Breach of promise is the true character of the cabinet which lives in these high-sounding words and fantasy -- , but this will be just the first.
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The Yanagisawa finance minister went along with "the public opinion" that the "progress schedule" of structural reformation is necessary and announced the scenario of nonperforming loan "processing", but, according to it, the nonperforming loan processing of the main banks will hardly goes on after three years later and it will barely be reduced to half after seven years later.
The Koizumi pledge to settle the nonperforming loan problem after two or three years later is going to be canceled.
Yanagisawa excuses that is because even if they would process the nonperforming loan of approximately 6 trillions yen annually, the nonperforming loan almost equal to it would be produced afresh.
He say that they have no choise because they cannot hold the good prospects about the economy for the next 3 years, and the growth rate would be low.
Even to say a nonperforming loan, it is not especially unusual in this bourgeois society.
In the case that a bank lent money, and it is not paid back because the achievement of the company would not be remarkable or go bankrupt, the nonperforming loan occurs there.
In brief, the loan has become irrecoverable.
It is to sweep away the nonperforming loan from the account book of the bank formally (or to say from the  points of management) that to "process" such a nonperforming loan.
In other words, the nonperforming loan is completely eliminated from the bank management and the bank management become "sound".
The method is to receive return from the company of course, but this loan is become a nonperforming loan just because the company has no ability to return.
Banks have postponed, delayed, and deceived that the nonperforming loan came to the front as real deficit, and they could do so to some extent by not forcing return of the loan that came to the time limit, by postponing the time limit of return, or by receiving only the interest while knowing the loan changed into a nonperforming loan.
Accordingly, the processing of nonperforming loan is to make "open" that the nonperforming loan is real deficit and to process it as a deficit, that is, to bear the burden for the bank, on the other hand, to force the target company bankruptcy, too.
Such credit that companies borrow a large amount of money and cannot pay it back, but banks have reprieved the term of payment is collected without a pardon, and the company cannot do nothing but go bankrupt if not to be able to meet it.
Therefore, this is said as to be a surgical operation, a drastic treatment, so banks and the companies borrowing money from banks are not allowed to behave like a baby.
And because banks also cannot bear such a burden and drastic treatment, it is also said to inject a large amount of public fund (although 8 trillions yen of "national burden" already has produced), too.
The Koizumi cabinet has consistently been emphasizing that the economy would not improve without doing such a drastic treatment determinedly, and without making the bank and company "sound",  that "there is no economic recovery without structural reformation", that sacrifice and "pain" would be needed to some extent. (to what extent?)
If so, he should force this way determinedly, and do not do it is nothing except unfair pledge violation.
Whether he has no confidence in own standpoint as "there is no economic recovery without structural reformation" or he thinks that "structural reformation" is impossible after all?
The idea that "structural reformation" is the starting point and premise of "economic recovery" is failing already, and the novel opinion as if "the relaxation of financial quantity" is the trump of "economic recovery" is butting into it.
To begin with, this "relaxation of financial quantity" is "structural reformation" or the opposite thing, hostile thing?
Of course, if we are going to do "economic recovery" with some means except "structural reformation", there is no great difference to do it with financial policy or with fiscal policy.
Because the both are in inseparable relationship and tied each other in the present capitalism.
Financial swelling is fiscal swelling and the reverse is true, too.
To begin with, it will be nonsense that "the relaxation of financial quantity" would lead to "economic recovery" because finance has been fully "relaxed" already, and it is in the situation that moneys have overflowed in banks.
According to one estimation, because the bank lending of approximately 500 trillions yen decreased around 3% (the increased margin money of bank by this is 15 trillions yen), and "money supply" of about 600 trillions yen increased around 3% (increase of 18 trillions yen) for this one year, "surplus fund" equal to or more than 30 trillions yen has been produced around bank.
Not to say about the exactitude of the number, it shows more than the rugh trend of current economic situation.
Masubuchi who is bawling that "economic recovery"can be achieved by doing the "relaxation of financial quantity" in the situation of such an enormous "surplus fund" is more than impolitic and nothing but Demagogy strike itself.
It will be quite clear that bank does not lend money because there is no company to borrow money even if they want to lend it and not because there is no money to lend.
What does Masubuchi look at, on earth?
Banks are sedulous to buy national debt becasuse they have surplus money and there is no company to lend out.
The national debt that banks hold has doubled in this one and half year and reached 76 trillions yen.
They say that the stocks possession by bank is a problem, but banks hold as much national debt as 2 times of stocks.
If the price slumps, -- it will be unavoidable --, "the national debt bubble economy" that banks are indulging in like a drug now may become even a fatal injury of bank management.
It may not be land and stocks bubble economy, but "national debt bubble economy" occurs now, and it is promoted and accelerated just by "relaxation of financial quantity".
That is the reason why the "relaxation of financial quantity" is a walloping nonsense and a cartoonish policy.
And if banks can buy a large quantity of national debt on account of "the relaxation of financial quantity", the indivisible relationship between the relaxation of the money market and the fiscal swelling will be also clear.
The government is sedulous to borrow mony, in other word, to issue the national debt, and the banks which have surplus money by the relaxation of finance buy the  national debt bottomlessly, thus, the fiscal and financial policy break away into the inflation economy with hand in hand.
It is not a problem to get off with the financial policy if it is difficult with fiscal policy.
If so, we do not mind  even "the economic recovery" by  finance swelling policy at all.
It might produce more "effect" to do so.
If they are going to do "structural reformation" seriously, they cannot succeed by such a "sweet" halfway way as to do only fiscal policy properly and financial policy in a hurry.
If they say that "economic recovery" will become empty word and economy will do not stand itself by doing "strict" way, it shows that "structural reformation" is impossible by the hand of the Koizumi cabinet right from the start, and that Koizumi only vomits large boast, high-sounding words.
It became clear in a moment by the breach of the pledge of "nonperforming loan processing" that the "structural reformation" of the Koizumi cabinet was a hocus-pocus of only a signboard.
If the Koizumi "structural reformation" would ever be done a bit seriously at all, the contradiction of the society ruled by capital would be deepen still more, the class opposition and class struggle would develop more.
Therefore, it is not done thoroughly.
They cannot do it.
Koizumi acquired power by bowling that there was no help in the capital system without "structural reformation".
However, if he cannot execute even the pledge, it will be a crucial thing for the rule of capital.
The thorough "processing" of nonperforming loan might be bank crisis, business failure, mass unemployment,  intensification of social contradiction, and development of political crisis.
However, Koizumi said to do it.
If Koizumi does not do it, though it is his free, he has and able to has no excuse when he is criticixed as it is an opening of pledge violation and a betrayal.
Of course, we do not say this bourgeois government to do thoroughly the "processing of nonperforming loan".
Such a thing is in their free.
We only expose that "the plan of making capitalism sound" that the Koizumi cabinet boasted has failed from the first and the nonsense has been revealed, and we emphasize that the economic stimulation = inflationary policy, "making sound" = deflationary policy, or the insincere mixture (deflationary fiscal policy, and inflationary financial policy) can never save the capitalism deepening contradiction and dismantling.
Japanese capitalism is now dropping increasingly to the blind alley that there is no "reform", no "business recovery", and no "growth".

 (Translated by Yoshi)