No. 836 / Sep. 9, 2001
�ž�@The First "Pledge
Violation" of Koizumi
Abandoning the Early Disposal of Bad
Credit
Koizumi's
�gStructural Reform�h is Already Breaking Down
�ž�@Editorial: The "First" New State
of the 21th Century
Thoughts on the Independence of East Timor
�ž�@Series: The
Wavering �gZokugiin�h Diet Members
Exposing the So-Called �gForces of Resistance�h [within the LDP]
(#3)
�ž�@Series: Lies and
Distortions
Critisism of the New Junior High School History Textbook
(#10)
�ž�@The�gSuggestion�h of an
Irresponsible Man
Kamei�fs
�gTete-a-tete�h With Koizumi�h
The Call for
Infusing 3 Trillion Yen in the Economy
�ž�@Regional Reports: The
Never-ending Police Scandals
(Kanagawa)
�ž�@The Deceit of the Privatization of
the Post Office
Spreading the
Fantasy of Economic Development
�ž�@"Restore" The Asian Mode of
Production Theory on Ancient History
Throw Out
The Slavery Theory of Japan
�ž�@Security Drills in the Name of
Disaster Drills
�@�@�@A Report on the September 1
Tokyo Disaster Drill
�ž�@Did you Say that Should Have a
System Based on Performance?
The Completely
Irresponsible Ministry of Education and Sience
�ž�@The Decrease of Productive
Workers
Where is
Japanese Capitalism Headed?
�ž�@The Scheme to Ensure Naval
Superiority in the Southwestern Islands
The Revision in
the �gOutline of the Defense Plan�h
From the article of 'Petrel'
Please send us your opinion and the impression about this article without reservation.
The First "Pledge Violation" of
Koizumi
Abandoning the Early Disposal of Bad
Credit
Koizumi's "Structural Reform"
Is Already Breaking Down
The Yanagisawa finance minister went along with
"the public opinion" that the "progress schedule" of structural reformation is
necessary and announced the scenario of nonperforming loan "processing", but,
according to it, the nonperforming loan processing of the main banks will hardly
goes on after three years later and it will barely be reduced to half after
seven years later.
The Koizumi pledge to settle the nonperforming loan
problem after two or three years later is going to be canceled.
Yanagisawa
excuses that is because even if they would process the nonperforming loan of
approximately 6 trillions yen annually, the nonperforming loan almost equal to
it would be produced afresh.
He say that they have no choise because they
cannot hold the good prospects about the economy for the next 3 years, and the
growth rate would be low.
Even to say a nonperforming loan, it is not
especially unusual in this bourgeois society.
In the case that a bank lent
money, and it is not paid back because the achievement of the company would not
be remarkable or go bankrupt, the nonperforming loan occurs there.
In brief,
the loan has become irrecoverable.
It is to sweep away the nonperforming loan
from the account book of the bank formally (or to say from the points of
management) that to "process" such a nonperforming loan.
In other words, the
nonperforming loan is completely eliminated from the bank management and the
bank management become "sound".
The method is to receive return from the
company of course, but this loan is become a nonperforming loan just because the
company has no ability to return.
Banks have postponed, delayed, and deceived
that the nonperforming loan came to the front as real deficit, and they could do
so to some extent by not forcing return of the loan that came to the time limit,
by postponing the time limit of return, or by receiving only the interest while
knowing the loan changed into a nonperforming loan.
Accordingly, the
processing of nonperforming loan is to make "open" that the nonperforming loan
is real deficit and to process it as a deficit, that is, to bear the burden for
the bank, on the other hand, to force the target company bankruptcy,
too.
Such credit that companies borrow a large amount of money and cannot pay
it back, but banks have reprieved the term of payment is collected without a
pardon, and the company cannot do nothing but go bankrupt if not to be able to
meet it.
Therefore, this is said as to be a surgical operation, a drastic
treatment, so banks and the companies borrowing money from banks are not allowed
to behave like a baby.
And because banks also cannot bear such a burden and
drastic treatment, it is also said to inject a large amount of public fund
(although 8 trillions yen of "national burden" already has produced),
too.
The Koizumi cabinet has consistently been emphasizing that the economy
would not improve without doing such a drastic treatment determinedly, and
without making the bank and company "sound", that "there is no economic
recovery without structural reformation", that sacrifice and "pain" would be
needed to some extent. (to what extent?)
If so, he should force this way
determinedly, and do not do it is nothing except unfair pledge
violation.
Whether he has no confidence in own standpoint as "there is no
economic recovery without structural reformation" or he thinks that "structural
reformation" is impossible after all?
The idea that "structural reformation"
is the starting point and premise of "economic recovery" is failing already, and
the novel opinion as if "the relaxation of financial quantity" is the trump of
"economic recovery" is butting into it.
To begin with, this "relaxation of
financial quantity" is "structural reformation" or the opposite thing, hostile
thing?
Of course, if we are going to do "economic recovery" with some means
except "structural reformation", there is no great difference to do it with
financial policy or with fiscal policy.
Because the both are in inseparable
relationship and tied each other in the present capitalism.
Financial
swelling is fiscal swelling and the reverse is true, too.
To begin with, it
will be nonsense that "the relaxation of financial quantity" would lead to
"economic recovery" because finance has been fully "relaxed" already, and it is
in the situation that moneys have overflowed in banks.
According to one
estimation, because the bank lending of approximately 500 trillions yen
decreased around 3% (the increased margin money of bank by this is 15 trillions
yen), and "money supply" of about 600 trillions yen increased around 3%
(increase of 18 trillions yen) for this one year, "surplus fund" equal to or
more than 30 trillions yen has been produced around bank.
Not to say about
the exactitude of the number, it shows more than the rugh trend of current
economic situation.
Masubuchi who is bawling that "economic recovery"can be
achieved by doing the "relaxation of financial quantity" in the situation of
such an enormous "surplus fund" is more than impolitic and nothing but Demagogy
strike itself.
It will be quite clear that bank does not lend money because
there is no company to borrow money even if they want to lend it and not because
there is no money to lend.
What does Masubuchi look at, on earth?
Banks
are sedulous to buy national debt becasuse they have surplus money and there is
no company to lend out.
The national debt that banks hold has doubled in this
one and half year and reached 76 trillions yen.
They say that the stocks
possession by bank is a problem, but banks hold as much national debt as 2 times
of stocks.
If the price slumps, -- it will be unavoidable --, "the national
debt bubble economy" that banks are indulging in like a drug now may become even
a fatal injury of bank management.
It may not be land and stocks bubble
economy, but "national debt bubble economy" occurs now, and it is promoted and
accelerated just by "relaxation of financial quantity".
That is the reason
why the "relaxation of financial quantity" is a walloping nonsense and a
cartoonish policy.
And if banks can buy a large quantity of national debt on
account of "the relaxation of financial quantity", the indivisible relationship
between the relaxation of the money market and the fiscal swelling will be also
clear.
The government is sedulous to borrow mony, in other word, to issue the
national debt, and the banks which have surplus money by the relaxation of
finance buy the national debt bottomlessly, thus, the fiscal and financial
policy break away into the inflation economy with hand in hand.
It is not a
problem to get off with the financial policy if it is difficult with fiscal
policy.
If so, we do not mind even "the economic recovery" by
finance swelling policy at all.
It might produce more "effect" to do
so.
If they are going to do "structural reformation" seriously, they cannot
succeed by such a "sweet" halfway way as to do only fiscal policy properly and
financial policy in a hurry.
If they say that "economic recovery" will become
empty word and economy will do not stand itself by doing "strict" way, it shows
that "structural reformation" is impossible by the hand of the Koizumi cabinet
right from the start, and that Koizumi only vomits large boast, high-sounding
words.
It became clear in a moment by the breach of the pledge of
"nonperforming loan processing" that the "structural reformation" of the Koizumi
cabinet was a hocus-pocus of only a signboard.
If the Koizumi "structural
reformation" would ever be done a bit seriously at all, the contradiction of the
society ruled by capital would be deepen still more, the class opposition and
class struggle would develop more.
Therefore, it is not done
thoroughly.
They cannot do it.
Koizumi acquired power by bowling that
there was no help in the capital system without "structural
reformation".
However, if he cannot execute even the pledge, it will be a
crucial thing for the rule of capital.
The thorough "processing" of
nonperforming loan might be bank crisis, business failure, mass
unemployment, intensification of social contradiction, and development of
political crisis.
However, Koizumi said to do it.
If Koizumi does not do
it, though it is his free, he has and able to has no excuse when he is
criticixed as it is an opening of pledge violation and a betrayal.
Of course,
we do not say this bourgeois government to do thoroughly the "processing of
nonperforming loan".
Such a thing is in their free.
We only expose that
"the plan of making capitalism sound" that the Koizumi cabinet boasted has
failed from the first and the nonsense has been revealed, and we emphasize that
the economic stimulation = inflationary policy, "making sound" = deflationary
policy, or the insincere mixture (deflationary fiscal policy, and inflationary
financial policy) can never save the capitalism deepening contradiction and
dismantling.
Japanese capitalism is now dropping increasingly to the blind
alley that there is no "reform", no "business recovery", and no
"growth".